I. Macroeconomic Shock: The Double Squeeze of Tariffs and Inflation
Trump's Tariff Policy Triggers Market Panic
The U.S. plans to announce a "reciprocal tariff" policy on April 2, expected to impose an average tariff of 15% on all trading partners, an increase of 5 percentage points from previous expectations. Goldman Sachs warns that this move could raise import costs and trigger global retaliatory actions, exacerbating inflationary pressures in the supply chain.
On March 28, during the U.S. stock market's "Black Friday," the S&P 500 index plummeted by 1.97%, with technology stocks leading the decline, resulting in a market value loss of $505 billion. The cryptocurrency market also faced pressure, with Bitcoin dropping from $84,000 to $81,565, and the total market capitalization shrinking by 25% to $2.9 trillion.
Inflation Data Exceeds Expectations, Rate Cut Outlook Clouded
The U.S. core PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in February, higher than the expected 2.6%. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 57, the lowest since 2022. Goldman Sachs has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.5% to 1.0%, with the probability of a recession rising to 35%.
Federal Reserve officials have expressed hawkish views, with Boston Fed President Collins stating that "maintaining high interest rates for a longer period is appropriate." Market expectations for rate cuts this year have decreased from four times to 1-2 times, leading to a sell-off in risk assets.
II. Institutional Fund Movements: ETF Divergence and RWA Surge
Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows Diverge
U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for two consecutive weeks, with a total outflow of $1.54 billion in March, including a single-day sale of 641 BTC (valued at $56.45 million) from GBTC. However, BlackRock's IBIT continues to see net inflows, with total AUM surpassing $40 billion, indicating long-term institutional confidence.
El Salvador continues to increase its BTC holdings, purchasing 53 coins in the past 30 days, with a mid-term goal of adding 20,000 coins, reinforcing its position as a "Bitcoin strategic reserve."
RWA Sector Rises Against the Trend
The market for tokenized real-world assets (RWA) is expected to reach $50 billion by 2025. Ondo Finance (ONDO) token price has surpassed $2.1, reaching an all-time high, with a total market capitalization of $2.8 billion. Its collaboration with BlackRock's BUIDL fund offers an annualized yield of 4.44% on U.S. Treasury bonds, attracting institutional holdings from firms like Grayscale and Pantera Capital.
Maple Finance has transitioned to RWA collateralized lending, issuing a total of $2.46 billion in loans with an annualized yield of 9.69%. After converting its token MPL to SYRUP, its circulating market value has exceeded $100 million, making it a leader in the private credit sector.
III. Technological Innovation and Market Divergence: Layer2 vs. Meme
Layer2 Technology Upgrades and Institutional Layout
Ethereum's Pectra upgrade is set to launch in April, integrating the execution layer and consensus layer to enhance staking flexibility, paving the way for a stakable ETH spot ETF. Fidelity and Grayscale have submitted applications, and if approved, could attract tens of billions in funding.
Traditional giants like Sony and Deutsche Bank are building Layer2 on Ethereum. Although it hasn't ignited the consumer market, it highlights technological recognition. The Base chain (under Coinbase) has surpassed one million daily active users, with trading volume exceeding Solana.
Meme Coin Frenzy and Risk Warnings
The "Meme Season" on the BSC chain continues, with CaptainBNB surging 13,000% within six hours of launch, but most projects lack value support. The TRUMP coin issued by the Trump family once had a market value exceeding $12 billion, but was later questioned as a "disguised tool for corruption," leading to a price halving.
Analysts warn that meme coin trading volume on chains like Solana and Base accounts for over 11%, but high leverage combined with regulatory uncertainties (such as U.S. congressional legislation limiting politicians from issuing coins) could trigger a sector collapse.
IV. Future Outlook: Key Events and Strategic Recommendations
April Risk Events Intensify
April 2 Tariff Announcement: If the policy is severe, Bitcoin may drop below $80,000; if certain industries are exempted, it could rebound to $85,000.
April 5 Non-Farm Payroll Data: If new jobs added are below 150,000, it may strengthen rate cut expectations, driving a rebound in the cryptocurrency market.
Long-Term Trends and Investment Logic
Bitcoin Strategic Allocation: Galaxy Research predicts a BTC target of $185,000 by 2025, recommending dollar-cost averaging in the $78,000-$82,000 range, with a stop-loss set at $77,500.
RWA and Compliance Opportunities: Prioritize investments in leading projects like Ondo (ONDO) and Maple (SYRUP), while being cautious of token unlock selling pressure (e.g., ONDO will unlock 1.94 billion tokens annually over the next four years).
Hedging Strategy: Buy BTC put options (strike price $75,000) and allocate 20%-30% in stablecoins (USDC, DAI) to cope with extreme volatility.
Conclusion: Seeking Structural Opportunities Amid Uncertainty
The cryptocurrency market in 2025 is undergoing multiple tests from macro policies, technological innovations, and capital battles. While short-term volatility may be severe, RWA compliance, Layer2 upgrades, and institutional ETF inflows remain long-term themes. Investors need to discard FOMO emotions and seize value anchors amid the storm of tariffs and inflation.
— This article does not contain any investment advice; investment should be approached with caution.
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