My personal view is that if there is no recession, high interest rates may be maintained for a long time. For example, there could be two rate cuts in 2025, two more in 2026, and by 2027, the rate might still be at 3.5%. In that case, 2027 could see the start of large-scale monetary easing, and there might be a chance to enter a low or zero interest rate period in 2028. However, if there is no recession, it is unlikely that there will be QE.

If there is a recession, the typical cycle to maintain rates down to zero is about 16 months. Therefore, in 2027, there may be a chance to see low or zero interest rates. If the recession is severe enough, it is possible to return to low rates by the end of 2026. The more severe the recession, the shorter the time frame, and the greater the probability of initiating QE.

This is entirely a personal opinion and may not be 100% accurate.

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