Arthur Hayes macro-crypto blog is my guilty pleasure reading.

Guilty, because his altcoin shill picks are weird and tbh slightly cringe.

But thanks to his bullish blog posts about the rising money supply in mid-2023, I went all-in on crypto at that time. Been a great ride.

Now, he believes that market expectations are unrealistically high.

He says Trump has just one year to push crypto reforms due to the 2026 midterm election cycle.

By the end of 2025, U.S. legislators will shift their focus to campaigning for the 2026 mid-term elections, making reforms politically hard.

This differs from the CT sentiment that Trump (and crypto) has at least 4 years for that.

That's why seeing the headline that the U.S. Congress is expected to prioritize crypto legislation in 2025 is extremely bullish.

Obviously, he gets many things wrong like we all do!!!

But it will be interesting to watch what happens during Trump inauguration as Hayes expects short-term pain around Jan 2025.

Still, things look bullish as Hayes bets on a massive dollar devaluation early in 2025 via gold revaluation that would boost Bitcoin as fiat weakens globally.

I hope you are right once more, sir, and my bags continue to moon into 2025.

Let's see what happens.

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