Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Undoubtedly, when the market is in a phase of "dominance by the major coins," the only performance opportunity falls on Meme coin projects, and more and more market attention is beginning to shift to the Meme coin sector.
Data shows that the search volume for "Bitcoin" on Google hit a one-year low during the week of October 12, dropping to 33 over the weekend, while the search index for "memecoins" was at 77 during the same period. Although it has not yet surpassed the historical high of 100 set in late October 2023, Meme coins have undoubtedly become the most discussed topic and area of interest among the general public compared to Bitcoin.
The ensuing question is: Is there an excessive bubble phenomenon in the Meme coin sector? What is the ceiling for Meme coin projects? With such a dense "hype wave," has the Meme coin sector already peaked? Odaily Planet Daily will briefly analyze the Meme coin sector in this article, looking at the future market space performance of Meme coins from a data perspective.
Meme Coin Sector Performance: Market Cap Share Below 2.5% but Top 100 Accounts for 10%
According to Coingecko data, the overall market cap of the Meme coin sector is currently around $58 billion, accounting for only 2.4639% of the total cryptocurrency market cap of $2.354 trillion, which is less than 2.5%.
Previously, the well-known crypto KOL and trader Ansem, known as the "King of Meme Coin Hype" and "First Person to Promote Meme Coins," stated: "The overall funds flowing into Meme coins are insufficient (with $500 billion out of a $2.2 trillion market cap, accounting for 2.5%), yet they are gradually gaining more attention.
The best trades in the next four months will determine which Meme coins have the following characteristics: 1) Long accumulation period; 2) Enthusiastic community on X platform (i.e., Twitter); 3) Easy to relate to ordinary people."
Notably, someone in the comments mentioned that MOG meets the three criteria mentioned by Ansem, and Ansem, as the "MOG hype leader," did not hesitate to affirm this positively, stating: "So True."
Screenshot of Ansem's statement
In stark contrast to the market cap share, the current top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap are increasingly showcasing Meme coin projects.
Coingecko information shows that currently, Meme coin projects occupy 10% of the top 100 by market cap, with leading projects including: DOGE, SHIB, PEPE, WIF, BONK, FLOKI, POPCAT, BRETT, NEIRO (lowercase projects), and MOG; among which, DOGE ranks 9th with a market cap of $16.57 billion.
If we compare the cryptocurrency industry to a country, the overall economic volume of this "country" shows that the Meme coin "economic system" currently only accounts for 2.5% of the total GDP; however, among the top 100 "companies" in this "economic system," 10 belong to the Meme coin sector.
In comparison, in 2023, the total revenue of companies listed in the Fortune 500 in the U.S. was $18.1 trillion, equivalent to 71% of the U.S. GDP for that year; in 2024, the total revenue of the top 500 companies in the U.S. rose to $18.8 trillion, an increase of about 4% from the previous year; the total revenue of listed companies accounted for two-thirds of the U.S. GDP.
Of course, comparing the cryptocurrency industry, with a market cap just over $2 trillion, to the U.S. economy, which has a GDP in the tens of trillions, is undoubtedly quite absurd, but we can clearly see that compared to the relatively fixed market cap range of the cryptocurrency industry ($2 trillion - $3 trillion), the market cap of the Meme coin sector is undoubtedly in a strong growth trend during this cycle.
Contributors to the Meme Coin Sector: Solana Ecosystem + pump.fun's Innovative "One-Click Token Creation" Model
According to market data, in 2024, the market performance of Meme coins outperformed all other sectors of cryptocurrency, and there are no signs of slowing down.
Statistics from an article in June of this year show
According to Step Finance data, from September 12 to now (over the past month), 497,153 new token projects have been created on the Solana network.
Solana Floor previously stated that on October 8 alone, nearly 20,000 new token projects were launched on Solana, most of which were Meme coin projects. On October 12, it also stated: The total market cap of Meme coins on Solana exceeded $10 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $2.3 billion.
Fundamentally, the prosperity of Meme coins is mainly attributed to the following three aspects:
The approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, leading mainstream funds to concentrate on centralized investments
Many crypto VC projects "have not produced results for a long time but are issuing tokens," further draining market liquidity
Continuous development of the Solana ecosystem, with pump.fun pioneering the "one-click token creation" model
As mainstream funds concentrate on ETF investment portfolios, newcomers entering the cryptocurrency industry will focus more on the Meme coin sector, which has effects of dissemination, wealth creation, and herd behavior; many crypto VC projects, after experiencing the previous bear market, have not produced any notable achievements or results, but they want to "seize the bull market opportunity and issue tokens for profit" and are crowding to issue tokens, subsequently disappearing, which further drains the already limited market liquidity, making retail investors even less willing to invest their real money into these spiraling "value coins," leading to a further vicious cycle; meanwhile, with the continuous development of the Solana ecosystem and the innovative "one-click token creation" model by pump.fun, on one hand, the threshold for issuing tokens has been further lowered, truly realizing the vision of "anyone can issue tokens"; on the other hand, Meme coins have become a "new growth point" for different blockchain network ecosystems, such as TRON, Base, SUI, etc., which have gained significant market attention, liquidity, and ecosystem focus through Meme coins.
Prerequisites for the Establishment of a Meme Coin Super Cycle: National Carnival, Market Cap Share Close to 10%, Appearance of $100 Billion Projects
In my personal opinion, if the cryptocurrency gradually enters a bull market phase in this cycle, according to the normal distribution principle, the market cap share of Meme coins should at least be close to or equal to the share of the top 100 projects, meaning the market cap of the Meme coin sector should account for about 8%-10% of the total cryptocurrency market cap.
Previously, the peak market cap of the cryptocurrency industry was over $3 trillion in November 2021, meaning that in a highly optimistic scenario, the potential market for the Meme coin sector still has 4-5 times growth space.
Industry OG, crypto KOL, and investor Murad previously mentioned in a speech: "The super cycle of Meme coins is not a prophecy about the future, but something that is happening right now." Moreover, he noted that among the top 300 cryptocurrencies by market cap, only 43 tokens have outperformed Bitcoin, and among them, Meme coins are undoubtedly the main sector.
Data from Murad's September speech
In a recent tweet, Murad mentioned: "The number of Meme coin holders in the Ethereum and Solana ecosystems is rapidly increasing, and we are still in the early stages of the Meme coin super cycle."
Meme coin projects with rapidly growing holder numbers over the past 30 days
Crypto KOL and seasoned player in the Meme coin sector, Neso, previously expressed his personal views on the future development of the Meme coin sector, stating: "What kind of market can be called a Meme coin super cycle? At least the following key indicators need to be met:
The total market cap of the Meme coin sector reaches or exceeds $300 billion (which would be about 5%-8% of the total cryptocurrency market cap at the peak of this cycle);
At least one Meme coin with a market cap over $100 billion appears;
5-10 Meme coins with a market cap over $10 billion appear;
At least one Meme coin is reported by mainstream global media, attracts the attention of celebrities, and creates a nationwide FOMO."
It is worth mentioning that the market cap peak of DOGE, known as the "ancestor of Meme coins," was on May 8, 2021. At that time, under the spotlight of the "tech mogul" Elon Musk and a fervent fanbase, its market cap once surpassed $100 billion, reaching a price of $0.7316 per DOGE and a total market cap of $107 billion. This single Meme coin project accounted for about 4.65% of the total cryptocurrency market cap at that time. Although the development stage of the cryptocurrency industry then was completely different from today, and it had not yet reached the market cap peak of the cryptocurrency industry, it still holds extraordinary reference value for the current development "ceiling" of Meme coin projects. (At the same time, the price of Bitcoin at that time was around $57,361; the total cryptocurrency market cap was about $2.3 trillion.)
We have reason to believe that the conditions for the complete establishment of the Meme coin super cycle are still not mature, and in the current increasingly tense global political and economic situation, cryptocurrencies, as assets with certain hedging properties, will inevitably receive more and more attention.
In the future, under the atmosphere of a national carnival, it is entirely possible for 1-3 Meme coin projects with a market cap of $100 billion to emerge, and the overall market cap of the Meme coin sector may be expected to exceed $300-500 billion.
After all, as Ki Young Ju, CEO and founder of CryptoQuant, mentioned: "Due to the high market interest in Meme coin-related digital assets, by the end of October 2024, the search volume for memecoins may return to previous historical highs."
Summary: The Meme Coin Super Cycle Will Arrive in 2025
A report from crypto asset management firm Matrixport shows that global cryptocurrency adoption is approaching an important milestone, with 7.51% of the global population currently using cryptocurrencies. It is expected that by 2025, this number will exceed 8%, marking a shift of cryptocurrencies from a niche market to the mainstream financial system.
Additionally, the research department of CoinMarketCap, CMC Research, mentioned in its Q3 market research report that "the Bitcoin bull market cycle is accelerating, with this bull market starting 100 days earlier than the typical four-year cycle. Various factors indicate that Bitcoin may enter a super cycle, driven by institutional adoption, BTC trading platform ETFs, and changing market dynamics. This bull market is expected to peak between mid-May and mid-June 2025, although there has been some early acceleration, there are signs that infrastructure growth is slowing, which may indicate broader market dynamics are changing."
As Murad also previously stated, 2025 will be a year when "Meme coins will rise and fall sharply like a parabola."
In other words, the bull market in 2025 is promising, and Meme coins will shine brightly in the cryptocurrency industry, which will no longer be niche.
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