Brokerage and Research firm Bernstein said on Monday that bitcoin may surge to $90,000 by the fourth quarter if former U.S. President Donald Trump wins the November U.S. election. Bernstein’s analysts said:

Elections remain hard to call, but if you are long crypto here, you are likely taking a Trump trade.

In the research report, the analysts predicted that Trump’s victory would push bitcoin to new highs, reaching between $80,000 and $90,000 by the end of the year.

Trump’s vocal support for making the U.S. a leader in the cryptocurrency industry and his policy proposals, such as appointing a crypto-friendly U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chair to replace Gary Gensler and establishing a national bitcoin reserve, were cited as major catalysts. The report also stressed that Trump has been vocal about making the U.S. the “bitcoin and crypto capital of the world.”

On the other hand, if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the November presidential election, bitcoin could fall below $50,000, with a possibility of testing the $30,000 to $40,000 range, according to Bernstein analysts. The firm noted that while Harris has not made any remarks on crypto, the industry has faced significant regulatory challenges.

Bernstein highlighted that the crypto market has endured regulatory obstacles over the past three years, including actions against firms like Coinbase and Uniswap. The analysts believe that a positive regulatory environment could stimulate innovation and bring back users to decentralized finance platforms. They also pointed to Trump’s lead in several key swing states, although national polling remains mixed.

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