After a strong start this, market participants are wondering what’s next for crypto.
Not a whole lot, according to some. Others see further price gains throughout the second half of 2024 following one of the strongest showings in exchange-traded fund history.
That’s come despite persistent inflation, geopolitical tension, and shifting politics on U.S. home soil, which could place crypto at the fore of single-issue voters’ minds come November.
Analysts like Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, see further room to run based on historical trends.
"If the current cycle’s durability adheres to previous trends, this could indicate a potential market top between Q2 and Q4 of 2025," Sigel said in a recent investor note.
Historically, the crypto market has experienced distinct four-year cycles, with significant price peaks typically occurring post-halving, Sigel said.
The cycles from 2013 to 2017 and 2017 to 2021 have followed this trend, with new all-time highs achieved after each halving.
Sigel's analysis posits the current market’s cooling phase is a precursor to yet another surge.
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at digital asset manager Bitwise, also sees further upside following the eventual launch of U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs, which some experts believe could come as early as this month.
Ethereum ETFs could gather $15 billion in net flows by the end of 2025, Hougan said in a note on Monday.
“Investors love technology stocks,” Hougan said, referring to investor preferences for “high-growth tech plays,” including Nvidia and Meta. “It’s pretty easy for me to imagine investors selling a small amount of their tech exposure and adding ETH.”
Still, the $15 billion figure would fall short of Bitcoin ETFs, Hougan said, which have already amassed $14 billion in less than six months and are projected to reach over $50 billion by the end of 2025.
There's also shifting politics to contend with both inside the U.S. and abroad which could pivot the narrative to clearer regulation for the industry, according to some.
Traders don’t necessarily have to agree with the political change sweeping Europe and the U.S. to see how it might be more favorable to crypto, Pav Hundal, lead market analyst at crypto exchange Swyftx, told Decrypt.
“If nothing else, decentralized finance should surely be more appealing to business and retail investors when the political environment is so unpredictable,” he said.
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