John Hussman, the president of Hussman Investment Trust, has a track record of accurate market predictions, including the 2000 and 2008 crashes. In his latest analysis highlighted in a recent Business Insider report, Hussman presents three charts that indicate striking similarities between today’s market and yesterday’s historical bubbles. He emphasizes the current overvalued equities and restricted market scope, suggesting a dire outlook for the S&P 500.

Recently, a growing number of voices have echoed this same viewpoint. According to the Business Insider (BI) report, one of Hussman’s key indicators is the ratio of the total market cap of non-financial stocks to the gross value added of non-financial stocks. This ratio, currently near its highest peaks seen in 2021 and 1929, suggests negative annualized returns over the next 12 years for the S&P 500. Alongside the BI report, Hussman has shared these same views on the social media platform X.

Hussman’s latest analysis implies that current valuation extremes could lead to a substantial market decline. Hussman stated:

Current valuation extremes imply potential downside risk for the S&P 500 on the order of 50-70% over the completion of this cycle.

Hussman also points to market internals, which assess individual stock performance and involvement levels. The BI report shows that Hussman’s data indicates that the S&P 500’s risk levels are as high as they were during the 2000 and 2008 market peaks. This combination of high valuations and poor internals, according to Hussman, indicates that any further market highs are likely to be minimal, with significant downside potential.

“Once extreme valuations and deteriorating internals open a trap door, it’s then that overextended conditions become worth monitoring,” Hussman explained to his followers on X last week. “Last week’s tally of warning syndromes in weekly data eclipsed the November 2021 ‘Motherlode,'” the analyst added.

Hussman is not the sole analyst forecasting a downturn; Harry Dent anticipates a major stock market crash, while market strategist Gareth Soloway envisions a market slump. Soloway recently highlighted issues within the U.S. banking sector, and Dent argues that we are in the bubble of all bubbles. Numerous factors are exacerbating the situation, including inverted bond markets, major banks flagged for insufficient crisis prevention, elevated interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, and a decimated commercial real estate sector.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。