Many Americans were perplexed by Joe Biden’s debate performance on Thursday evening, especially since mainstream media had portrayed him as being in strong standing over the past six months. According to a report by NBC, Biden’s performance has left many Democrats concerned about his chances against former President Donald Trump. On Saturday, NBC further reported that Biden will spend Sunday at Camp David deliberating on the future of his campaign.

An individual with knowledge of the administration informed NBC that “it’s a mess” and that Biden’s debate debilitated confidence. Following reports of Biden retreating to Camp David for further discussions, Polymarket bettors have increased the odds of the president withdrawing from the 2024 race. Two days ago, the odds were at 39%, having climbed after Biden’s subpar debate performance. However, with the Camp David news, the odds have now risen to 50%, the highest level yet. At 8:25 a.m. EDT on Sunday, the bet dropped slightly down to 46%.

Additionally, there’s another bet titled “Will Biden Drop Out by July 4?” which has also increased, rising from a 4% chance to 12% following NBC’s revelations. By 8:25 a.m. on Sunday, it declined to 10%. According to the left-leaning publication Axios, the “Biden Oligarchy” will determine the campaign’s future. The article describes a clandestine cabal that holds significant influence over Biden and will make the final decision. Axios states this influential circle includes his wife Jill, his sister Valerie, and 85-year-old Ted Kaufman, among others.

“This decades-long kitchen cabinet operates as an extended family, council of elders and governing oligarchy,” Axios reporters Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei explain. “These allies alone hold sway over decisions big and small in Biden’s life and presidency.”

Another Polymarket wager indicates Biden has a 63% likelihood of securing the Democratic nomination, while Vice President Kamala Harris holds a 13% probability. An unnamed candidate, possibly Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, stands at 11%, and both former First Lady Michelle Obama and California Governor Gavin Newsom have 7% chances. Polymarket’s bet on the general election, focusing on the 2024 winner, shows Trump leading with a 65% probability, whereas Biden’s chances are now at 18%.

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