If you look in the rearview mirror, the path of this Kondratieff cycle is so clear. You can see obvious development trends along the three dimensions of terminal, application, and network:

Phase 1:

Pc (terminal) + application software + LAN (network), with network not being the focus

This phase mainly occurred in the United States

Representative companies: IBM, hp, Microsoft

Phase 2:

Pc (terminal) + website + Internet (network)

This phase is characterized by the alternating boom of websites and networks.

Representative companies:

Dell, Apple,

Yahoo, Google,

Cisco

Phase 3:

Mobile phone (terminal) + app + 3g/4g

Representative companies:

Apple, Huawei

Facebook, Tencent

Aws

Phase 4:

Electric vehicles (terminal) + ??

Representative companies:

Tesla, BYD

You can see the transition or specialization of terminals, from PCs to mobile phones to cars.

The main beneficiary countries of this round of Kondratieff wave are the United States and China, but now the dividends are basically over. The remaining dividends from electric vehicles are not enough for the US and China to share, so everyone is fighting.

At the same time, the behavior of the United States as a hegemon is starting to change because there are no more dividends, and allies will have to suffer and make sacrifices.

The characteristics of the late stage are:

Relying on debt to achieve growth, rather than technological progress. The United States started this before 2008, first with private leverage, and then government leverage.

Now, even government leverage cannot drive growth.

China is similar, starting around 2015. It has been leveraging before, but from 2015 to now, it has mainly relied on leverage to sustain growth.

——————

What is the next Kondratieff wave?

Is it AI + robots? Blockchain? Genetic technology?

This is not yet known. However, it feels like AI and genetic technology may not be able to support world-class growth, perhaps it is robots, but this is not confirmed yet.

More importantly, it is now the end of the previous Kondratieff wave, and it seems to have similarities with the previous wave. For example, the stagflation in the United States in the 1970s, and the surge in gold prices. Whether this round will be the same remains to be seen.

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