Daily Sharing

The trend of Bitcoin is more or less in line with our expectations. Yesterday's article mentioned that a short-term rebound of the 4-hour level is likely, and last night it surged above 63,500 and again above 65,000 today, indicating a short-term demand for rebound, rather than the imminent crash that many people have been speculating.

Friends who read my article last night should have reaped substantial gains today, basically a direct feed.

After the article was published yesterday, Bitcoin quickly rebounded from around 62,000 to above 63,500. However, we explicitly advised against chasing the rise and recommended waiting for an opportunity. If it falls below 60,000 again, we advised everyone to decisively go long.

An interesting scene appeared after last night's rebound. This morning, it fell below 60,000 again, dropping to as low as 59,600. I believe those who read my article should have decisively gone long. Then, it quickly rebounded from 59,600 to above 65,000, reaping a profit of 5,000 points.

We can analyze the market here as follows:

First, the short-term market is volatile and unpredictable, making it difficult for us to accurately predict short-term price fluctuations. For example, after Bitcoin rebounded last night, it should have been in a rebound state today. However, this morning's rapid decline to around 59,600 may have been influenced by the Israeli counterattack against Iran or other factors. The short-term market is prone to fluctuations, making it difficult for ordinary people to predict.

Second, although the short-term market is difficult to predict, it does not mean that our trading has no direction. The only thing we can grasp is that the 4-hour level decline of Bitcoin is basically coming to an end and is unlikely to drop to 55,000 all at once. Since the 4-hour level decline is ending, we should try to avoid going short at low levels and maintain a bullish view, as the next 4-hour level uptrend is our main direction.

Finally, combining the short-term fluctuations with the medium-term view of a 4-hour level uptrend, the operation becomes simple. In uncertain short-term situations, do not chase the decline or the rise. Do not easily chase the rise for long positions or the decline for short positions. Instead, maintain the principle of going long when it falls. This way, the success rate can be improved. The operational approach should be adjusted based on the current trend.

Last night, my article's title mentioned a bullish view up to 67,000 and 69,000. Some people did not read the entire article carefully and directly chased long positions near 63,000 based on the title, resulting in being trapped in the morning's decline and hastily cutting losses. After the loss, seeing the price fall below 60,000, they dared not trade, thinking the price would further drop to 58,000, so they chose to wait and see. Then in the afternoon, seeing it surge above 63,000 again, they couldn't help but chase long positions. This kind of operation is basically a true portrayal of many people, always liking to chase the rise and kill the decline, and not willing to patiently wait for the right opportunity.

BTC Medium and Long Term

Daily Chart:

At the daily chart level, it is currently unclear whether the decline from 73,777 has ended. Personally, I believe we can consider the end of the daily chart level decline in the short term. If the short-term rebound cannot break through 70,500, we may consider that Bitcoin's daily chart level decline may need to extend further.

Regardless of whether the daily chart level retracement of Bitcoin ends around 59,600 or may need to retest below 59,000 in the future, it is highly probable that the daily chart level decline of Bitcoin will hardly drop below 55,000. Those who expect a sharp drop to 50,000 or 48,000 will likely be disappointed.

The next daily chart level uptrend of Bitcoin is not likely to be too far away and will likely break through 74,000 soon. My personal target is to see the area of 100,000 to 120,000 USD.

4-Hour Chart:

At the 4-hour chart level, as shown in the above figure, Bitcoin has already completed the first 4-hour level decline, the second 4-hour level rebound, and the third 4-hour level decline. Since the low point of the third decline broke the low point of the first decline, Bitcoin's structure has already formed a daily chart level decline.

Next, it's relatively simple. We need to closely monitor whether the subsequent daily chart level decline will end after completing the three 4-hour structures, and then start a new daily chart level uptrend as indicated by the white arrow in the figure, or whether the daily chart level decline still needs to complete the fourth rebound and the fifth decline, as indicated by the blue arrow in the figure.

The distinction between the two mainly depends on the current rebound at the 4-hour level. If the daily chart decline has not ended, the current 4-hour rebound should not effectively rise above 70,500. In other words, if it follows the blue arrow trend, the 4-hour rebound should not break 70,500. If it follows the white arrow trend, the 4-hour rebound should rise above 70,500.

The specific trend needs to be observed as it progresses, but it can be determined that if it follows the blue arrow trend, the fifth 4-hour decline will most likely only reach the range of 56,000 to 59,000, making it difficult to have a deep decline. Therefore, overall, we should maintain a bullish view, rather than constantly bearish, and don't forget that there is still the next daily chart level uptrend. Clearly, 73,777 is not the peak for the next few months, so why continue to be bearish.

BTC Short Term

Due to the rapid changes in the market, the article can only make predictions based on the market conditions at the time of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes and use this information as a reference only.

1-Hour Chart:

At the 1-hour chart level, the current expectation is that the first 1-hour level rebound within the ongoing 4-hour level rebound is still in progress. Normally, this first 1-hour level rebound has not ended yet, and it is expected to reach around 66,000 to 67,000. Then, there will be a second 1-hour level retracement and a third 1-hour level uptrend. It is expected that the third 1-hour level uptrend can reach around 69,000, and whether it can break through 70,500 will depend on the market.

The above is based on the expectation that the 4-hour level rebound will progress smoothly.

15-Minute Chart:

At the 15-minute chart level, the first 1-hour level rebound has already completed the first 15-minute level rebound, and the short term is currently undergoing the second 15-minute level retracement. To prevent another situation similar to this morning's rapid decline, we can set a boundary. If the retracement stays above 61,800, there is a high probability of a third 15-minute level uptrend. If it effectively falls below 61,800, we need to be aware of the possibility of another rapid decline.

In addition, it is important to note that the halving of Bitcoin is less than 11 hours away. Pay close attention to whether there will be rapid up and down movements before and after the halving. Therefore, it is still not advisable to chase the rise directly. If there is a downward movement, consider going long.

ETH

Ethereum once again experienced a rapid decline today, dropping to as low as 2,865, but still not breaking 2,852. I accurately opened a long position near 2,865 in the morning and plan to hold it for a longer period. The ongoing 1-hour level rebound is in progress, and as long as the retracement does not fall below 2,950, the target for the rebound will continue to be around 3,250. The overall target for the 4-hour level rebound is around 3,500 to 3,700.

Trend Direction

Weekly Chart Level: Upward direction, currently a continuation of the rebound from 15,476. Pay attention to the subsequent daily chart situation to determine when it will end.

Daily Chart Level: Upward direction, there is a certain probability that the daily chart retracement has ended, but it cannot be determined at the moment. We can only judge based on the strength of the short-term 4-hour level rebound.

4-Hour Chart Level: Upward direction, about to start a 4-hour level rebound. Whether it can break through 70,500 will be an observation point for the daily chart structure.

1-Hour Chart Level: Upward direction, as long as it stays above 61,800, there is a chance to reach around 66,000 to 67,000.

15-Minute Chart Level: Downward direction, if the 15-minute level retracement does not fall below 61,800, there should be a third 15-minute level uptrend. Pay close attention to whether there will be rapid up and down movements before and after the halving.

Feel free to follow my public account for further discussion and exchange:

The article is time-sensitive, so be mindful of the risks. The above is only personal advice and is for reference only!

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