Today marks 12 straight days of more decliners than advancers in the S&P 500

CN
4天前

Today marks 12 straight days of more decliners than advancers in the S&P 500, more than the previous longest streak on Sept 11, 2001 (11 days).

Here's what the S&P 500 looked like at the time (green).

Notice how we were already down -29.5% from the ATH, which had occurred 18 months before the signal?

This time is not the same as that time.

The S&P 500 would go on to fall another -29.5% over the next 13 months.

If an investor bought the S&P 500 on 9/11/01, they had to wait 26 months to get back to break even, in December 2003.

In reality, for long-term investors, that's not much time at all.

In fact, history tells us that this was actually a great time for long-term investors to accelerate their DCA schedule and continue to buy core portfolio holdings at lower prices during an existing bear market.

Mind you, the S&P 500 is up +457% since September 11, 2001, despite undergoing 3 recessions, "the lost decade", COVID, the 2022 crash, various U.S. Presidents, global geopolitical turmoil, wars, etc., etc.

This "weak breadth" datapoint is making its rounds lately, promoted by bears as yet another justification to be bearish on the market due to this perceived "weakness".

Before you listen to them, ask "how did this justification work in 2023, or at any point in 2024?"

Ask "have the U.S. indices continued to climb higher or have they been falling for the past 24 months?"

Look at the evidence.

Think about the consequences and the reality of historical performance.

Do not listen to the equivalent of the boy who cried wolf.

We are in a 24+ month uptrend in the stock market.

Bull markets have pullbacks & consolidations.

In fact, pullbacks are a normal feature during bull markets.

Maybe we're about to enter one of those typical -5% to -10% pullbacks over the coming months.

We should (always) be prepared for that kind of normal price action, because history tells us that they aren't uncommon.

But what should we do about it?

Embrace it.

Be ready for the indices to produce a higher low (half of the uptrend equation, with the other half being to produce a higher high).

If the goal is to be an investor, then the way to achieve that goal is to stay invested and to allocate more income into the market on a regular and re-occurring basis.

And hey, maybe that dip doesn't come!

Maybe the market goes up another +5% to +10% from here before the next -5% to -10% dip comes.

I'll tell you what though, "weak breadth" is not the catalyst for a decline.

I can't be bearish on the market when the largest, most profitable, and most important companies in the entire world are literally trading at all-time highs.

$MGK, the Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF, made new ATHs literally yesterday.

The S&P 500 itself only needs to gain +0.59% to have its highest daily close of all-time, which occurred just 7 trading days ago.

The Nasdaq-100 made new all-time highs yesterday and was only down -0.43% today.

"bUt CaLeB, wHaT aBoUt ThE eQuAL-WeiGhT aNd sMaLL cApS?"

First of all, even with the recent -5.67% decline in the Russell 2000 (intraday high to today's close), the $IWM is up +15.1% YTD and outperforming its average calendar year return.

Secondly, I don't own small caps.

I own the MVPs of the market, with the significant majority of my equity portfolio in tech & software.

Then I own a bunch of #Bitcoin (which is like 70% of my net worth), and it just made new all-time highs today.

I'm positioned to continue taking advantage of the strongest trends, the best companies, and the most successful assets that have worked during this bull market.

If you're not positioned that way, then that's your problem.

So you can complain about the consequences of your actions, or you can try to do something to change, adapt, and reposition yourself accordingly.

The choice is yours.

Not mine.

Yours.


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