
Rocky|Apr 15, 2025 17:15
Entering a bear market in the US stock market does not necessarily mean that BTC is also entering a bear market. It can only be said that the liquidity of cryptocurrencies will become increasingly tight!
BTC has a stronger negative correlation with the US dollar index in history and has a longer history, which means:
The US dollar index has fallen 📉—— BTC price tends to rise 📈, The recent drop in the US dollar index below 100 has actually formed significant positive news for BTC, gold, and the Japanese yen (as shown in Figure 1).
After the BTC ETF spot is approved in 2024, The BTC price has a strong correlation with Nasdaq technology stocks, and it is constantly increasing. This is mainly due to the strong binding effect formed by micro strategy and other technology companies holding a large amount of BTC, as well as the arbitrage linkage between a large number of cryptocurrency stocks, resulting in an enhanced correlation (as shown in Figure 2).
But one day, BTC is completely detached from the US stock market. This situation exists when the US dollar credit begins to experience a crisis, such as short-term defaults on US bonds and other special circumstances, the credit system is reshaped, and funds will choose more safe haven options to diversify risks, such as gold and the Japanese yen, BTC, etc. 🧐
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