Please be rational! You think Trump is crazy? In fact, he will conduct a deeper analysis in the next larger game of chess In the face of the "tariff storm" launched by Chuanpu, Many people criticize him for being SB, anti market, destroying globalization, and hurting others and oneself. Why is everyone irrational? Because everyone has storage space, But at least I noticed his five fold logical reasoning. He's playing a bigger game next! 🔺 1、 Voter logic: Trump should be responsible to the voters Trump's tariff war was first decided by political reason. He knew who he relied on to come to power - the rust belt, the unemployed in the manufacturing industry, and the shrinking middle class. They are the biggest victims of globalization. Income has not increased, jobs have been relocated, and young people are carrying packages in Amazon warehouses, leaving an entire generation in a state of 'systemic disappointment'. What they need is not just 'income subsidies', but' rebuilding freedom and dignity '. This is precisely the high-dimensional development concept advocated by Nobel laureate Sen. Therefore, Trump must bring them three pieces: job opportunities, industrial recovery and dignity return. Raising tariffs and promoting the return of manufacturing industry is a voter feedback mechanism. If he cannot do so, he may not only lose the midterm elections, but also lose the future MAGA party's dominance over the American path. This is the starting point of his' political rationality '. In the final analysis, the American people are the people who are in charge. 🔺 2、 Sovereign logic: Radical global markets are utopian fantasies, sovereign states are the reality and foundation Trump has long been unconvinced that "the global market is neutral and fair". And the reality is indeed the same: the radical utopian ideal of globalization has collided with institutional boundaries, cultural tensions, ideological conflicts, and geopolitical hard walls. The chip war, rare earth bottleneck, Russia Ukraine war, and Israel Kazakhstan conflict have repeatedly revealed: The global market only has rules, not referees; Freedom must rely on sovereignty; Safety is the foundation of development. Trump is not anti market, but believes that the market premise must be "fair" and "controllable": If a country exports products through state subsidies, exchange rate manipulation, and depriving workers of their rights, So free trade is no longer freedom, but a form of institutional dumping. So, he wants to use tariffs to correct the situation and sovereignty to abide by the rules - not without the market, but with a bottom line market. Under the concept of sovereign markets, the United States no longer plays the role of a free world policeman, but rather a paid "world security". At the same time, the US dollar has shifted from strength to strength. Trump stressed the simple fact that Midi cannot run a long-term trade deficit, and at the same time, he has to shoulder such huge world obligations. No country can continue like this. 🔺 3、 Preparation logic: Without manufacturing, war will fail Trump knew that what really kept him awake was not GDP or NASDAQ, but the possibility of war in the Taiwan Strait. Under the alarm of the Russo Ukrainian war, if a conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait before 2030, and the United States remains like this: The manufacturing industry accounts for less than 16% of the global total, Insufficient ammunition inventory, The supply chain is heavily outsourced, The efficiency of the military industry is extremely low, and the United States cannot withstand any scale of conflict. Therefore, Trump must force decoupling, force the return of manufacturing, and "restructure the industrial structure" with tariffs, even if it causes short-term financial market shocks. This is not to win the current trade war, but to not lose a real war in the future. 🔺 4、 Policy logic: Tariffs are the most available tool in his hands Trump has few policy tools: The Federal Reserve is independent and cannot directly cut interest rates; Congress is highly sensitive to fiscal expansion, and he himself prefers to balance the finances; Military spending cannot be reduced, and there are political risks to social welfare; Tax cuts are easily criticized as "preferential treatment for the rich". But tariffs are different. They are a 'direct weapon under presidential authority' that can also stimulate nationalist sentiment, strike strategic opponents, stimulate domestic manufacturing, and enhance bargaining chips. That's also why he used tariffs as a universal strategic tool as soon as he took office. 🔺 5、 Winning logic: The United States is the world's largest consumer terminal and has the strength to fight this war Many people worry that the trade war will "kill a thousand enemies and lose eight hundred", but Trump knows that the United States has the strategic dominance of the "buyer's market". The population of the United States only accounts for 4.2% of the world's population, but its consumption accounts for 26.4% of the world's consumption; The per capita annual consumption is 62000 US dollars, which is 11.7 times that of China; In contrast, China's population accounts for 17.4% of the world's population, but only contributes 9.4% of the world's consumption, and the per capita consumption is only 5300 dollars. What does this mean? The United States is the 'world's largest buyer', while China is the 'largest seller'. In the tariff game, buyers are always more patient and have more say. Trump's use of tariffs is to reshape rules and order with the buyer's position, rather than "hard shoulder" confrontation. It is very likely that the Sichuan Universiade will use the weapon of tariff war to promote the peace talks among countries, and only China and the United States will fight in the end. Therefore, the tariff war will become a trade war and economic decoupling between China and the United States. 🔺 6、 Respond to three common criticisms of Trump: 1. Isn't the global market highly efficient? Yes, but the premise of the market is rules and fairness. When faced with opponents of state capitalism and institutional asymmetry, market logic will fail, just like in a league where match fixing is rampant, discussing offensive efficiency is meaningless. 2. Can't subsidies be used to help victims of globalization? Subsidies can alleviate temporary difficulties, but they cannot give people a sense of work, dignity, and being needed. Freedom+participation "is the complete happiness of a person. 'Bringing the factory back' is not an economic determinism, but a process of repairing social and psychological balance, and a high-dimensional economics of 'looking at development with freedom'. 3. Isn't increasing tariffs going to shake the US and global economy? Yes, but that is the cost of maintaining the existing order. Trump's goal is to reconstruct order and prepare for war. If the logic changes, the cost becomes meaningful. 🔺 7、 Summary: Behind Trump's tariff war is not chaotic populism, but a set of internal logic chain of "voters sovereignty war tool victory". Outsiders can criticize his route and strategy, but they must first understand his logical system. He is not fighting a trade war, but rather an election war, a balance war, a sovereignty war, an order war, and a reserve war; He is not trying to destroy globalization, but rather to 'prioritize sovereignty and reshape the global order'. Of course, whether we can develop according to his script is another matter. As investment players, we can only follow the trend because we cannot change the market. Is Trump crazy? Maybe, what do you think