
Phyrex|Apr 10, 2025 15:43
Today's CPI data is a bit difficult to describe. Firstly, overall inflation is declining, which is a good thing. Both nominal CPI (CPI annual rate) and core CPI have decreased, indicating that even with the addition of China's 20% tariff, inflation in the United States has been brought under control. It can be said that without external interference, the Federal Reserve can see inflation return to the path of 2%.
However, if the monthly rate of CPI turns negative, it indicates that inflation has turned into deflation. This data is not very friendly because when deflation occurs, it generally means a decrease in purchasing power, insufficient demand, and usually accompanied by weak employment, rising inventory, and shrinking manufacturing. In other words, deflation represents a downward trend in the economy.
And for the Federal Reserve, deflation is even more terrifying than inflation, because deflation means an increase in debt burden, a decline in asset prices, and a comprehensive contraction in investment and employment.
So the market has increased its expectations for a rate cut in June, which is equivalent to an increase in expectations for a downturn in the US economy, leading to a decline in risk markets.
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