UBS: GDP growth could fall to 0.1% this year (Q4/Q4), with two quarters of negative GDP growth in 1H 2026. The tariff shock could take the unemployment rate to 5.5% in 2026. "We believe the FOMC would likely react, but slowly at first, and really only respond forcefully after seeing the economic damage because of the inflation risks, in our view. The price level increase is large enough that monetary policy could risk getting caught offside, not unlike in 2022."