Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)
Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)|Mar 29, 2025 03:15
Actually Musk is down a lot more here than I thought. Which is why he would have done this deal, it was near collapse. I forgot that he put 25% of xAI shares into Twitter in exchange for data access and rev share. So the 33B valuation he just gave for Twitter included 20B of xAI equity. So the actual value of the site was 12B. He’s down -30B, still has 12B in debt to pay down, which is now the entire remaining value of the site. Given that and the sell off in Tesla shares it’s very likely that his collateralized loans were getting called into question. So he eats a mark down loss $45b->$33b to roll Twitter into xAI so he can stave off bankers on those loans. But now he has an $80b company, with at least $12b in debt and only around $100m/yr in top line revenue optimistically. All still backed by Tesla stock. He gets to save face with accounting magic claiming that Twitter didn’t lose value - but Musk got fucking cooked here.
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