
Phyrex|Mar 28, 2025 14:44
My personal opinion is that if there is no recession, high interest rates may be maintained for a long time, such as two interest rate cuts in 2025, two interest rate cuts in 2026, and a 3.5% interest rate by 2027. Therefore, there may be a large-scale monetary easing in 2027, and there is a chance to enter a period of low or zero interest rates in 2028, but without a recession, there is a high probability that there will be no QE.
If there is a recession, the period for maintaining interest rates to zero is usually around 16 months, so there is a chance to see low or zero interest rates in 2027. If the recession is severe enough, it is not ruled out that interest rates may return to low levels by the end of 2026. The more severe the recession, the shorter the time, and the higher the probability of initiating QE.
It's entirely a personal opinion and may not be 100% correct.
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