
Kay Capital|Mar 11, 2025 04:56
It has been twelve years since I first bought XRP in 2013, and the concern about Bitcoin has always been in the slow bull market of the low interest environment in the 2010s. I have never experienced an economic crisis or a high interest rate environment.
So 312 was quite nervous, and at that time it was really money borrowed as collateral.
In fact, when borrowing money in 2019, several leading indicators of recession have appeared, including the long-term and short-term reversal of treasury bond and the decline of federal interest rate.
At that time, after studying the history of 2008 for a long time, it was found that when an economic crisis came, gold also had to fall first, and only TLT could possibly rise. Not to mention that digital gold was just a narrative, at that time it could only be considered as an alternative investment product, Bitcoin.
In other words, without the pandemic, there is still a high probability of a 312 level collapse in 2020, and financial markets can commit suicide if they lose certainty. The nature of the pandemic's expected disturbance is similar to that of a war, just a trigger.
In the end, I bought it with a loan at around 7000 yuan. I definitely wouldn't make such a decision today. I attribute it to being young and energetic, having read some books, believing that man can conquer nature, and not believing in the true macro cycle.
312 is truly a destruction. Do you know that people age overnight? Let's not delve into it.
In summary, Bitcoin, which has experienced a small recession and a high interest cycle, has no long-term bearish reason for me personally. On the contrary, it has more certainty in my personal system than at any time.
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