JPMorgan Chase: The cryptocurrency market is currently in a wait-and-see state, awaiting clearer macroeconomic or structural catalysts

According to The Block, analysts at JPMorgan have identified several key factors that may impact the cryptocurrency market in the coming months, including technical, geopolitical, and structural events that could drive price volatility. In a research report released on Monday, analysts discussed the impact of seasonal "Uptober" trends, interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, approval of Bitcoin ETF options, and the upcoming Pectra upgrade of Ethereum. A key conclusion of the report is that October has consistently shown a strong trend, commonly referred to as the 'Uptober', with over 70% of October Bitcoin receiving positive returns. The analyst wrote, "Although past performance cannot predict future performance, we believe that the popularity of 'Uptober' may affect behavior and lead to a positive performance for Bitcoin in October this year." Despite the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, analysts point out that the broader cryptocurrency market has not yet seen the expected positive impact; Although the interest rate cut environment typically supports risky assets, the correlation between the total cryptocurrency market value and the federal funds rate remains weak at 0.46; Since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates on September 18th, we have not seen a significant increase in cryptocurrency prices due to the rate cuts, and the market may wait for more sustained stability before making a decisive change. In addition, analysts acknowledge that it is difficult to accurately predict how cryptocurrencies will respond to interest rate cycles due to the lack of historical data. Another potential catalyst is the recently approved spot Bitcoin ETF option trading. Analysts predict that this may deepen market liquidity and attract new participants. This development may initiate a positive feedback loop, enhance market structure, and make digital assets more accessible to institutional investors. The upcoming Ethereum upgrade, known as "Pectra," is also seen as a significant development. Analysts said, "Although Pectra is expected to have a transformative impact on Ethereum's functionality, we believe that this upgrade is more structural than a direct price catalyst. The long-term impact of Pectra will be to improve Ethereum's operational efficiency and adoption rate, but it is unlikely to trigger a short-term surge in Ethereum prices Analysts have concluded that the cryptocurrency market is currently in a wait-and-see state, waiting for clearer macroeconomic or structural catalysts to drive sustained growth. They said, "We continue to see the crypto ecosystem becoming increasingly sensitive to macro factors, so we are waiting for the next major catalyst to drive the development of the ecosystem and enhance retail participation, thereby achieving long-term growth