Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Today, let's talk about a pretty impressive bill that Arizona has passed, called SB373. In simple terms, it allows the state government to use no more than 10% of the state's public funds and retirement system to buy Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.

However, the bill is currently with the governor, who has 5 working days to decide whether to sign or veto it. So whether SB373 will pass remains uncertain. If it gets vetoed, the legislature would need a two-thirds majority to overturn it, which is not an easy task.

Next up is the GDP data from the U.S. that will be released tomorrow. Once this data comes out, the market is sure to experience volatility. Recently, ETFs have been attracting a lot of money, and market sentiment has warmed up a bit. But don’t be overly optimistic; the current price of Bitcoin is quite awkward, and we need to think calmly.

Why is it awkward? It has been fluctuating within a large range for a short time. It is estimated that it will take about ten more days to determine the direction. Let’s make a hypothesis: the last major adjustment was horizontal, dragging from March to October of last year for several months. This time, it might adjust vertically, dropping sharply but for a shorter duration.

How to view this specifically? The first wave of adjustment was from 109588 down to 74508, followed by a rebound from 74508 to the current level. After the rebound, it might drop again, and how much it drops will depend on the strength of the rebound, along with whether there are any stabilization signals in the daily chart.

Since the bull market began in October last year, every time the short to medium-term moving averages on the daily chart have crossed, Bitcoin has risen by about 30%, followed by a correction of at least 50%. This has happened five times already.

Now, from the rise to 74k, it has increased by 28%, nearing 95 to 98k. There are many trapped positions here, creating significant pressure. If there is a 50% correction, it would drop to around 85k.

Currently, we are in a phase of transitioning from bearish to bullish. The moving averages need to gather together before spreading out in a bullish direction. In simple terms, the market is still finding its way, so everyone should avoid being blindly excited. It’s good that money is coming into ETFs, but we also need to pay attention to policies and the overall environment.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 95500

Second Resistance Level: 95000

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 94200

Second Support Level: 93500

Today's Suggestions:

Bitcoin continues to test the 95K resistance after forming a range during the rebound. As long as the price does not drop below the low and maintains the upward trend line, forming a range, it can be seen as consolidating at the bottom, and we can maintain a bullish view for the day.

Instead of adopting a breakout trading strategy, it’s better to focus on whether the 120-day moving average and the upward trend line can stabilize within the adjustment range, and after entering at a lower price, pay attention to whether the trading volume increases when breaking through 95K.

In the short term, 94.2K can be considered a support level, but given the current short-term selling pressure, it may break below. Therefore, it is recommended to use the 120-day moving average as support.

If the price holds above the 120-day moving average and closes above it, it will help raise the low points, thus continuing to maintain a bullish view. The levels of 93.5K and the upward trend line can also be considered as support.

4.29 Master’s Swing Trading Setup:

Long Entry Reference: Light position in the 93000-93500 range, Target: 95000-95500

Short Entry Reference: Light position in the 95000-95500 range, Target: 94200-93500

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