Source: Cointelegraph
Original: “Polymarket Bets on Mark Carney as Canada’s Prime Minister, Voters Set to Cast Ballots”
In the upcoming fast election, crypto users are betting on the outcome that will determine Canada’s next Prime Minister, seemingly favoring a victory for the Liberal Party.
As of April 28, the crypto betting platform Polymarket gives current Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal candidate Mark Carney a 79% chance of defeating Conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre to become the next Prime Minister. Data from the platform indicates that users have wagered over $75 million on this election, predicting either Poilievre or Carney will win.
The odds on the platform, along with many polls, show a significant shift in the prospects of the two candidates since former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned in January. Trudeau and his Liberal Party have faced criticism for their handling of Canada’s housing crisis, as well as questions on how to respond to tariffs proposed by then-President Donald Trump.
After Trudeau's resignation, Trump intensified his attacks on Canada, repeatedly referring to the country as the “51st state” of the U.S. and calling Trudeau its “governor.” Trump also imposed a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada in March.
Unlike the 2024 U.S. elections, where Trump often states he will implement policies favorable to the crypto industry, Carney and Poilievre do not seem to have made digital assets a core part of their campaigns.
Similar to Trump, Poilievre stated on social media in 2022 that if elected party leader, he would make Canada the “blockchain capital.” This statement was made months before Trump began claiming he would make the U.S. the “crypto capital.” However, since the market downturn triggered by the collapse of Terra and FTX in 2022, the Conservative candidate has remained largely silent on digital assets.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk—who is also an advisor to Trump—and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong expressed support for Poilievre in social media posts in January. Both are Canadian citizens and may be eligible to vote in the election. (Musk obtained Canadian citizenship through his Canadian mother, while also holding South African citizenship and being a naturalized citizen of the U.S.)
In contrast, Mark Carney, during his tenure as Governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020, held a critical stance on Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies, calling them “poor stores of value in the short term.” After leaving the bank, he spoke at the Bank for International Settlements, advocating for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
Despite being the Liberal Party’s candidate for Prime Minister, Carney is associated with Trudeau’s efforts in 2022 to suppress the trucker protests that blocked streets and disrupted travel, but polls indicate Carney is likely to defeat Poilievre. Polls suggest that the Prime Minister’s opposition to Trump’s tariffs and Trump’s threats to “annex Canada by economic force” have boosted Carney’s chances.
The results of the fast election are expected to be announced on April 30.
Related: U.S. Senator Calls for Impeachment of Trump Over “Meme Coin Dinner” Incident
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