Source: Cointelegraph
Original: “Despite $3 Billion in ETF Inflows, Bitcoin (BTC) Rally May Face Resistance at $100,000”
Key Points:
The rebound in Bitcoin's price may face resistance around $100,000, as the market begins to question whether high ETF inflows always indicate a local top in asset prices.
Does $1 Billion in Bitcoin ETF Inflows Indicate a Top?
Bitcoin has shown strong upward momentum after rebounding from a multi-month low of $74,400. According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, BTC has risen 8% in the past week.
This rebound in Bitcoin is driven by strong investor demand for spot ETFs, with weekly net inflows reaching $3.06 billion, the highest since December 2025.
To determine whether high inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs indicate that prices are nearing a local top, one can analyze historical data for evidence.
While in some cases, large inflows have indeed coincided with or preceded Bitcoin price tops, this is not always the case.
The chart above shows that on March 12, 2024, net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs exceeded $1 billion in a single day, with BlackRock's IBIT product attracting $849 million. Following this influx of funds, Bitcoin immediately set a historical high of $73,300 in March, signaling a phase top. A similar situation occurred on June 3, 2024—$91.7 billion in inflows pushed Bitcoin from $67,000 to $72,000, but it then faced a 25% deep correction to $53,000. These cases support the view that large inflows often signal local tops.
However, an anomaly occurred in November 2024: during a week of $3.78 billion in inflows, Bitcoin continuously broke historical highs, not only failing to show a top but also first surpassing the $100,000 mark on December 17 and eventually reaching a peak of $108,000. Quantitative analysis firm FalconX confirmed through a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model that ETF fund flows have only short-term predictive power for Bitcoin prices, with no necessary correlation to trend reversals.
What is the Potential for Bitcoin's Upside?
From the 27% rebound starting from the low of $74,400, Bitcoin has successfully turned key moving averages into support levels, including the 50-day ($85,100), 100-day ($90,570), and 200-day ($89,300) simple moving averages (SMA). However, according to well-known analyst AlphaBTC, Bitcoin is still oscillating below the resistance level of $95,000.
AlphaBTC stated in an April 28 X post: "The $95,000 pink resistance zone has suppressed the $BTC price as expected over the past few days, hoping for a breakthrough this week.” Cointelegraph previously reported that $95,000 is the next key resistance level for Bitcoin, and bullish factors such as sustained ETF demand will be crucial for a breakout. AlphaBTC added, "After hitting $100,000, a deeper correction may follow."
Monitoring platform CoinGlass shows significant sell-side accumulation in the $97,000 to $100,000 range over the past three months.
This suggests that Bitcoin's price may need to further probe the $100,000 level to absorb liquidity in that area before potentially initiating a correction.
Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource platform Material Indicators, expressed skepticism about whether BTC/USD can hold above $95,000. Meanwhile, trading firm QCP Capital believes that Bitcoin currently lacks the "catalyst" to propel it toward $100,000.
Related: Melania Meme Coin Team Sells $1.5 Million Tokens Amid 21% Price Surge
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
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