Source: Cointelegraph
Original: “Bitcoin (BTC) price could hit an all-time high in May—here's why”
Key Points:
From April 20 to April 26, Bitcoin rose by 11%, demonstrating resilience and maintaining around $94,000, a two-month high. This rebound was fueled by signals from the Trump administration regarding the easing of import tariffs, as well as strong corporate earnings reports.
Additionally, the spot ETF recorded a record net inflow of $3.1 billion within five days, further boosting investor confidence. However, a key Bitcoin derivatives indicator showed signs of bearish momentum, raising questions about whether Bitcoin can smoothly reach the $100,000 target.
Perpetual Bitcoin futures contracts are favored by retail traders due to their close price correlation with the spot market. A positive funding rate means buyers need to pay fees to maintain their positions, so when the funding rate reverses, it is typically associated with bearish trends.
The sharply negative funding rate recorded on April 26 is very rare during a bull market, as it usually indicates stronger seller demand. This indicator has been highly volatile since April 14, but as Bitcoin's price broke through $94,000, short sellers were caught off guard. Since April 21, over $450 million in Bitcoin short positions have been forcibly liquidated.
The resurgence of confidence in Bitcoin and the strengthening of its price can be partly attributed to the S&P 500 index rising 7.1% within a week. However, despite the optimistic market sentiment, reports indicate that U.S. President Trump stated on April 25 that negotiations would depend on whether China makes concessions, leading traders to begin questioning the sustainability of the recent rally.
Currently, the quarterly earnings reports released by companies mainly reflect performance prior to the escalation of the trade war, so the factors driving the stock market and Bitcoin upward are actually different. In fact, the correlation between Bitcoin's price and the S&P 500 index is no longer tight.
At present, the 30-day correlation between the S&P 500 index and Bitcoin is 29%, significantly lower than the 60% observed from March to mid-April. While a lower correlation does not mean a complete decoupling, as investor sentiment is still influenced by macroeconomic factors, it indicates that Bitcoin is no longer merely an alternative to tech stocks.
Bitcoin's status as an independent asset is strengthening.
After gold prices reached a historic high of $3,500 on April 22, they failed to maintain their upward momentum, which is also considered significant for Bitcoin's status as an independent asset class. Some traders have questioned the "digital gold" narrative, but if Bitcoin can maintain above $90,000 in the long term, investor confidence may further strengthen, paving the way for future increases.
Moreover, the increase in bearish leverage demand in perpetual Bitcoin futures does not align with the sentiment of professional traders. In contrast, monthly Bitcoin futures contracts avoid the volatility of funding rates, allowing traders to clarify leverage costs in advance.
On April 26, the two-month Bitcoin futures premium (basis rate) rose to its highest level in seven weeks, indicating growing interest in bullish positions. This indicator is currently at 6.5%, although still within the neutral range of 5% to 10%, it has clearly moved away from the bearish zone.
The disconnect in leverage demand between perpetual contracts and monthly Bitcoin futures contracts is not uncommon. Even if retail traders remain cautious, large-scale accumulation by institutions may be enough to push Bitcoin's price above $100,000 in the near future.
Related: Whales actively accumulate Bitcoin (BTC), Michael Saylor hints at a new round of purchases.
This article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in the article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and positions of Cointelegraph.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
