Source: Cointelegraph
Original: “Bitcoin (BTC) 'Power Law Model' Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Reach $200,000 by 2025”
Key Points:
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) rose 11% this week, marking the best single-week gain since 2025 and the highest 7-day increase since early November 2024. On April 25, the price of Bitcoin also reached $95,000, the first time since February 24.
Bitcoin 1-week chart Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Sina, co-founder of 21st Capital, mentioned that Bitcoin has regained its power law pricing. The accuracy of the power law prediction stems from the Bitcoin network following Metcalfe's Law, where value is proportional to the square of the number of users.
According to Sina's Bitcoin quantile model, the restoration of power law pricing suggests that Bitcoin is expected to reach price targets of $130,000 and $163,000 by the end of 2025.
Sina's Bitcoin quantile model Source: X.com
As shown in the chart, Bitcoin is currently in a "transition" range, where BTC accumulation is occurring. Once it enters the "acceleration" zone, the crypto asset will move into a 33% to 66% increase range, gradually reaching $106,000, $130,000, and $163,000 over the next few months.
However, anonymous Bitcoin analyst apsk32 predicts that by 2025, Bitcoin's price target could be as high as $200,000. This prediction is based on the "Bitcoin power curve time profile," which overlays Bitcoin's price trends over four-year cycles (2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025). The chart shows strong performance in the third and fourth quarters of 2025, with the analyst noting that Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle remains unchanged. The analyst stated:
“Look at the two-year periods today, four years, eight years, and twelve years ago. Use the power curve trend line for price scaling. The Bitcoin price is expected to exceed $200,000 in the fourth quarter. Gold indicates that we can go higher.”
Bitcoin power curve time profile chart Source: X.com
Gold-Bitcoin lag may repeat the rally in the fourth quarter
Since the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin and gold have both reached new highs in the market, with each asset outperforming the other during specific periods.
As shown in the chart, Bitcoin and gold reached new highs between March and August 2024. However, in the third quarter of 2024, gold rebounded first, outperforming Bitcoin. By the fourth quarter, Bitcoin regained momentum, surpassing the precious metal and maintaining its lead until March 2025 when gold took the lead again.
Bitcoin gold price performance chart Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Gold still leads Bitcoin, but it has fallen 6% since reaching a new high, while Bitcoin has risen 11%. Cointelegraph reported that BTC tends to follow gold's directional deviation 100-150 days later. Based on this, Bitcoin may lead gold in the coming weeks.
Similarly, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to a three-year low on April 21, further increasing the likelihood of a rebound in risk assets. Cointelegraph reported that the historical lows of DXY are bullish for Bitcoin. Crypto analyst "Venture Founder" also pointed out,
“Traditionally, a decline in DXY is very favorable for BTC, and we now have a significant bearish divergence on DXY, which could indicate it falling to $90. This has happened the last two times, triggering a parabolic bull market for Bitcoin in the final stages of the bull market (lasting 12 months).”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trade involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
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