Good morning, crypto friends! Today is April 25, 2025, Friday, I am Wang Yibo. In this crypto world full of opportunities and challenges, tracking real-time hotspots and seizing the best trading opportunities is our daily essential task. I hope all loyal fans will actively check in and like to support, wishing everyone great profits in the crypto market 🍗🍗🌹🌹
1. Macroeconomic Market Dynamics and Federal Reserve Policy Expectations
The recent "rate cut wind" released by the Federal Reserve continues to boost market confidence, with U.S. stocks rising for the third consecutive day. The strong performance of tech stocks has become the main driving force, with the Nasdaq index up 2.74%, and the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices rising 1.2% and 2%, respectively. Tech giants like Apple (AAPL.O), Nvidia (NVDA.O), and Tesla (TSLA.O) all saw gains of over 2%, reflecting the market's optimistic expectations for the tech industry.
The cryptocurrency market is generally showing a sideways trend. Bitcoin (BTC) is fluctuating around $93,000, Ethereum (ETH) is in a weak consolidation phase, while coins like SOL and DOGE are maintaining relative strength. CME's "FedWatch" data shows that the market sees a 91.7% probability of maintaining interest rates in May, but the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut in June has risen to 57.8%, indicating that investors' expectations for monetary policy easing in the second half of the year are heating up.
2. In-Depth Analysis of Bitcoin Market
1. Short-Term Trends and Key Support Levels
Bitcoin's overnight volatility was limited, peaking at $93,600 before retreating, continuing the recent range-bound pattern. During the midnight period, the price dipped to $92,600 before rebounding, indicating strong support below. Currently, the $91,500-$92,000 area constitutes a key support line, as it is not only a previous price concentration area but also a core point for the bulls and bears. If the price can effectively hold this support with a moderate increase in volume, Bitcoin is expected to initiate a trend of upward fluctuations.
2. Technical Analysis and Trading Strategy
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's RSI (Relative Strength Index) is oscillating in the 40-60 range, showing no significant overbought or oversold signals, indicating a relatively balanced market between bulls and bears. The short-term resistance level above is $95,000; if this level is broken, it may further test the $96,000 mark. The support level below to watch is $91,600; if it breaks, it may trigger technical selling.
Trading Suggestions:
Range Trading
: Within the $91,600-$95,000 range, a high short and low long strategy can be adopted, with stop-loss references set 300-500 dollars outside the range.
Breakout Follow-Up
: If the price effectively breaks above $95,000, consider going long, targeting $96,000-$97,000; if it breaks below $91,600, consider going short, targeting $90,000.
3. Ethereum Market Interpretation and Strategy
1. Trend Characteristics and Technical Divergence
Ethereum (ETH) is following a similar trend to Bitcoin but with more volatility. The price rebounded after hitting a low of $1,741, peaking at $1,776 before retreating, oscillating overnight in the $1,745-$1,760 range. The daily technical indicators show a prolonged divergence, with the RSI in the overbought zone (above 70) forming a top divergence with the price, indicating insufficient upward momentum in the short term.
2. Volume and Capital Flow
Ethereum's trading volume has not shown significant expansion, reflecting a strong market wait-and-see sentiment. On-chain data shows that the ETH inventory on exchanges continues to decline, which may suggest that long-term holders are optimistic about the future, but short-term competition between bulls and bears is intense.
Trading Suggestions:
Mainly Short
: Currently, the price is at the high end of the range; consider placing short positions near $1,760-$1,770, with a stop-loss at $1,780 and a target down to $1,740-$1,720.
Low Long as Support
: If the price falls back to the $1,720-$1,730 support level, and the RSI shows a bottom divergence, consider taking a small long position, with a stop-loss at $1,710 and a target of $1,750-$1,760.
4. Other Coins and Market Sentiment
1. Strong Performance of SOL and DOGE
SOL (Solana) and DOGE (Dogecoin) have recently performed well, with SOL's applications in DeFi and NFTs driving its price up, while DOGE maintains high volatility due to the meme coin craze. Attention should be paid to whether SOL can break through the key resistance at $150 and the support strength of DOGE around $0.25.
2. Capital Flow and Institutional Dynamics
The inflow of Bitcoin ETF funds continues to increase, with a single-day inflow of $381.4 million on April 23, indicating institutional demand for long-term allocation in cryptocurrencies. At the same time, companies like MicroStrategy are increasing their Bitcoin holdings, further consolidating market confidence.
5. Risk Warning and Market Outlook
Policy Risk
: The U.S. SEC plans to hold a roundtable on cryptocurrency custody issues on April 25, which may raise market concerns about regulatory policies.
Technical Risk
: The volatile market for Bitcoin and Ethereum may lead to liquidation of high-leverage positions in the contract market, requiring strict position control.
Macroeconomic Risk
: If the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations do not meet expectations, it may trigger a simultaneous pullback in the U.S. stock and cryptocurrency markets.
Summary: The current cryptocurrency market is in a state of balance between bulls and bears, and the range-bound pattern of Bitcoin and Ethereum is unlikely to break in the short term. Investors need to remain patient, strictly implement stop-loss strategies, and avoid chasing highs and cutting losses. Focus on the Federal Reserve's policy direction, technical breakout signals, and changes in capital flow of mainstream coins.
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If you are feeling lost—don’t understand the technology, don’t know how to read the market, don’t know when to enter, don’t know how to set stop-losses, don’t understand take-profit, randomly increase positions, get stuck at the bottom, can’t hold onto profits, miss out on market movements… these are common issues for retail investors. But don’t worry, I can help you establish the correct trading mindset. A single profitable trade is worth a thousand words; repeated failures are not as good as finding the right direction. Instead of frequent operations, it’s better to strike accurately, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code below the article to follow my public account. The market changes rapidly, and due to review timeliness, subsequent trends will be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to moving steadily forward in the market with you.
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