Latest data shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has decreased from 0.88 at the end of 2024 to the current 0.77, while the correlation with the Nasdaq Composite Index has also dropped from 0.91 in January 2025 to 0.83. Is Bitcoin shedding its label as a "high-risk asset" and gradually establishing itself as "digital gold"? Or is it merely a temporary fluctuation in the market cycle?
Decoupling Trend: From Synchronization to Differentiation
In recent years, Bitcoin has shown a high correlation with US stocks (especially the tech-driven Nasdaq index), particularly during the bull and bear market cycles of 2021-2022. The influx of institutional investors, the launch of crypto ETFs, and changes in the macroeconomic environment led to Bitcoin being viewed as a "risk asset," moving in tandem with US stocks. However, since spring 2025, this synchronization has significantly weakened. According to a report by Jiemian News on April 15, the 30-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq fell to a five-year low of 0.46 in March 2024, and although it has slightly rebounded recently, it remains far below historical highs.
On April 21, Caixin reported that Bitcoin rose against the trend during the US stock market's pullback, demonstrating its independence from traditional markets. Market observer @cryptomayflower on platform X also posted on April 23 that the ongoing decoupling of Bitcoin from US stocks could mark a turning point for it as an "independent asset class," especially against the backdrop of a declining dollar index and pressure on US stocks, with Bitcoin's correlation to gold rising. This trend echoes the "2025 Big Ideas" report released by ARK Invest in February 2025, which emphasized that Bitcoin's volatility had dropped to historical lows in 2024 (annualized volatility below 50%), making its risk characteristics more akin to safe-haven assets rather than speculative ones.
Driving Factors: Macroeconomic Environment and Policy Expectations
The decoupling of Bitcoin is significantly influenced by macroeconomic and policy changes. First, the increasing uncertainty in the global economy has driven demand for safe-haven assets. In April 2025, Tencent News cited an analysis from Bitcoin Magazine Pro stating that the trade war, rising US Treasury yields, and weak corporate earnings have led to increased volatility in the stock market, while Bitcoin, due to its decentralized nature, has attracted funds seeking refuge. X user @biteshizhe also posted on April 23, pointing out that concerns over economic recession combined with US Treasury risks could propel Bitcoin to become "digital gold 2.0."
Secondly, optimistic expectations at the policy level are also supporting Bitcoin's independent market performance. Insights reported on April 10 that multiple states in the US are responding to the initiative of "building Bitcoin strategic reserves," coupled with potential signals of regulatory easing from the SEC, which has bolstered market confidence. After the Trump administration took office, the promised policies of "relaxing crypto regulations" and "establishing Bitcoin reserves" have gradually been implemented, further boosting investor expectations for crypto assets in the long term.
Market Signals: Opportunities and Risks Coexist
Does Bitcoin's decoupling signify its entry into a new asset cycle? Authoritative media have differing views on this. Sina Finance analyzed on April 20 that Bitcoin tends to align with US stocks when risk appetite is high, but may shift to being a safe-haven asset during market panic, making its price fluctuations harder to predict. Meanwhile, the market is not without concerns. X user @Shuke_Beta reminded on April 22 that although the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has increased, its safe-haven effect still requires more data validation, and liquidity contraction could exert pressure on prices. Caixin also warned that in an institution-led market environment, while Bitcoin's volatility has decreased, it may still be affected by global capital flows.
Investment Insights: Reassessing Bitcoin's Role
For investors, the trend of Bitcoin decoupling provides an opportunity to reassess their portfolios. Traditionally, Bitcoin has been viewed as a high-risk asset with a strong correlation to tech stocks, but its increasing positive correlation with gold may position it as a hedging tool during inflation or heightened economic uncertainty. However, investors should remain cautious; Investing.com noted on April 23 that market sentiment and policy changes could still trigger short-term fluctuations.
This article represents the author's personal views and does not reflect the stance or views of this platform. This article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.
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