Standard Chartered's Long-Term Price Prediction for BTC: Reaching $200,000 by the End of 2025 and $500,000 by 2028.

Source: cryptoslate

Translated by: Blockchain Knight

Geoffrey Kendrick, the Global Head of Crypto Asset Research at Standard Chartered, believes that although BTC has strengthened its position as a hedge tool in recent weeks, its price still does not reflect the increasing signs of systemic risk.

In a client report dated April 22, Kendrick warned that the political pressure facing the Federal Reserve is exacerbating tensions in the bond market, which could soon spill over into the crypto asset market.

He noted that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield premium has risen to its highest level in 12 years, indicating that the market's concerns about inflation, debt issuance, and especially the potential replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are intensifying.

Kendrick stated, "The actions that threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve through the potential replacement of Powell fall entirely within the realm of government-related risks. BTC should soon reflect this shift."

Kendrick categorizes BTC as a tool to hedge against two different types of systemic threats: one is a private sector collapse, such as the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023; the other is a public sector credibility shock, like central bank intervention or concerns over sovereign debt.

Kendrick emphasized that while BTC typically behaves as a risk asset under normal conditions, its true function emerges during macro pressure events. He added that the recent surge in yield premium is an indicator of long-term inflation and interest rate risks, representing the kind of environment in which BTC historically re-establishes its hedging narrative.

Kendrick also pointed out a recent divergence: while the yield premium has significantly increased in the past few weeks, BTC's price has stagnated below $100,000. He attributed this lag to investors temporarily focusing on trade-related concerns, including tariffs in the tech sector, which have weakened BTC's response.

He wrote, "Due to investors' attention being temporarily focused on the poor performance of tech stocks, BTC has lagged behind the yield premium. However, when the focus shifts back to central bank credibility issues, BTC will regain its hedging function."

Despite short-term volatility, Kendrick reaffirmed Standard Chartered's long-term price prediction for BTC: reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025 and $500,000 by 2028.

He attributed this expected increase to macroeconomic pressures, improved structural investment channels through spot ETFs, and an increasingly mature derivatives market.

Kendrick had previously modeled the growing share of BTC in optimizing gold-BTC portfolios, believing that as volatility decreases, this will support BTC prices rising in the future, especially under the current U.S. government leadership, which continues to expand institutional access.

Kendrick stated, "This may be the necessary condition to achieve the next historical high for BTC."

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