Last week (April 15 to April 21), affected by macroeconomic and policy uncertainties, BTC showed a trend of fluctuating consolidation. As risk aversion heightened and funds overflowed, the BTC price rebounded significantly. On the 21st, the BTC price rose in tandem with gold prices, briefly breaking through the $88,000 resistance level before retreating. However, as market sentiment shifted and BTC's safe-haven properties were recognized, BTC gradually stabilized on the 22nd, reaching a high of $88,465.99, with a maximum weekly fluctuation of 6.44%. Currently, the BTC price is stable around $88,038.
ETH prices stabilized this week after experiencing declines in the previous two weeks, currently hovering around $1,500 to $1,600, with a maximum fluctuation of 7.8% during the week (data source: Binance spot, April 22, 14:40).
Market Interpretation
On April 21, U.S. stocks significantly corrected after the holiday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 971 points, and all three major indices falling over 2%. Major tech stocks generally declined, with Tesla down 5.7% and Nvidia nearly 5%. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose to 4.405%, while the dollar index fell below 99, with funds flowing into gold, causing New York futures gold to rise 3%, breaking through $3,400 per ounce.
BTC Strongly Decouples from U.S. Stocks, "Digital Gold" Narrative Heats Up, Mainstream Altcoins Rise in Unison
Data shows that the correlation between BTC and the stock market has significantly decreased over the past 10 days. Against the backdrop of continued corrections in U.S. stocks and a weakening dollar, BTC rose against the trend, breaking through $88,500 and reaching a new monthly high, demonstrating a significant decoupling from U.S. stocks. In contrast, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell sharply due to trade war concerns, while gold also strongly broke through $3,400 per ounce, showing a broad rise in safe-haven assets.
Meanwhile, mainstream altcoins such as BNB, SOL, and XRP rose in tandem with BTC, continuing the trend of warming market risk appetite. SOL rose over 5% in a week, BNB broke through $600, and XRP technically broke out of its consolidation range, all showing strong upward momentum.
Federal Reserve Faces Triple Pressure, Policy Credibility Shaken, Market Risk Aversion Heats Up
On April 16, the Federal Reserve's fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation saw accepted amounts drop to $54.772 billion, a new low since 2021, indicating a rapid decline in market demand for short-term dollar liquidity, with signs of tightening funds emerging. The Federal Reserve faces triple pressure from declining liquidity, unclear policy paths, and challenges to its independence, triggering significant market volatility.
The next day, Powell publicly stated that inflation may deviate from targets for the remainder of the year and admitted a lack of modern experience in policy-making under extreme tariff conditions. He added that if there is a shortage of dollar liquidity, the Federal Reserve will provide support to global central banks. Following his remarks, U.S. stocks fell across the board, with the S&P 500 down 1.6%, the Nasdaq down 2.5%, and the Dow down over 1%.
On April 21, U.S. stocks continued to decline, with the Dow falling another 971 points. The dollar index fell below 99, gold rose 3% breaking through $3,400 per ounce, and funds clearly flowed into safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, Trump continued to publicly pressure Powell and was reported to be considering his position, raising deep concerns in the market about the Federal Reserve's independence.
Market Highlights
U.S. Economic Expectations Downgraded, Recession Risks Heat Up
A recent Reuters survey shows that U.S. economic growth expectations have been significantly downgraded. The GDP forecast for 2025 was lowered from 2.2% to 1.4%, and for 2026 from 2.0% to 1.5%. At the same time, the probability of the U.S. entering an economic recession in the next year has been raised to 45%, the highest level since December 2023.
The survey also indicated that the CPI inflation expectation for the U.S. in 2025 saw the largest upward adjustment since March 2023, reflecting growing market concerns about stagflation risks. The combination of slowing growth and rising inflation will complicate monetary policy space, and the market may further lean towards safe-haven asset allocation.
SEC to Hold Crypto Custody Roundtable, Compliance Pressure Continues to Rise
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced it will hold its third crypto policy roundtable on April 25, focusing on the issue of crypto asset custody. The meeting will establish two specialized groups to discuss custody compliance frameworks for brokers and wallet custodians, as well as for investment advisors and fund institutions.
This meeting signals ongoing regulatory progress, especially given the critical impact of custody on institutional entry. Analysts point out that the SEC's focus on custody issues may indicate that future compliance requirements for exchanges and custody service providers will be further refined, potentially limiting the operational space for institutional investors.
Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sales offers, or purchase offers to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, or other countries or regions where such offers or invitations may be prohibited by law. Trading in digital assets may carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
