How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

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18 hours ago

Author: @threesigmaxyz

Translation: zhouzhou, BlockBeats

Editor's Note: This article explores how stablecoins like USDT and USDC generate billions in revenue by investing reserves in U.S. Treasury bonds, with their income closely tied to Federal Reserve interest rates. If rates drop to zero, their profitability could plummet. As demonstrated by USDC during the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank incident, fiat-backed stablecoins face regulatory challenges and decoupling risks, while algorithmic stablecoins like USDe rely on crypto-native yields, making them less sensitive to interest rate changes. Tether's $20 billion equity ensures a runway of decades, but Circle's projected $1.68 billion revenue in 2024 and limited liquidity make it vulnerable with only 18-25 months of sustainability.

Below is the original content (reorganized for readability):

The Shift of Cryptocurrency Towards Stability

Initially, Bitcoin was seen as an alternative to traditional currency, a decentralized, borderless, and censorship-resistant form of money. However, due to its high volatility (dramatic price fluctuations), its gradual evolution into a speculative asset and a store of value, along with high blockchain transaction costs, it has become less suitable as a daily payment tool or a stable store of value.

This limitation has prompted the rise of stablecoins. Stablecoins aim to maintain a fixed value, typically pegged to the U.S. dollar, providing transaction stability and efficiency that Bitcoin cannot achieve.

The development of the crypto ecosystem reflects a pragmatic shift. Although Bitcoin's original ideal was to replace traditional currency, the demand for stability has led to the widespread use of stablecoins (often backed by traditional assets), becoming a pillar of the entire ecosystem.

These stablecoins act as a bridge between the traditional financial markets of the real world and the crypto ecosystem, promoting the adoption and application of cryptocurrencies on one hand, while also raising questions about the decentralized ideals of crypto. For example, stablecoins like Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) are issued by centralized entities, with their reserve assets held in traditional banks, which is seen as a compromise between ideology and reality.

Over the years, the adoption rate of stablecoins has surged. In 2017, their total market capitalization was less than $3 billion, but by March 2025, it had grown to approximately $228 billion. Stablecoins now account for about 8.57% of the entire crypto market, serving as important tools for trading, cross-border payments, and hedging during market turmoil.

This growth trend highlights the role of stablecoins as a key bridge connecting traditional financial markets and the crypto world. A chart from Coinglass clearly shows the steady and significant growth trend of major stablecoins' total market capitalization from early 2019 to the present.

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

What are Stablecoins?

Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain stable value by pegging their price to some external asset (such as fiat currency or commodities). For example, Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) are stablecoins pegged to the U.S. dollar at a 1:1 ratio. The goal of stablecoins is to provide the advantages of digital currency (such as fast, borderless transactions on the blockchain) without the extreme price volatility associated with Bitcoin.

Stablecoins strive to maintain price stability by holding reserve assets or employing other mechanisms, making them more suitable as daily transaction tools or stores of value in the crypto market. In practice, most mainstream stablecoins achieve price stability through collateralization, meaning that for every stablecoin issued, an equivalent reserve asset must back it.

To ensure the stability and credibility of stablecoins, clear regulation is necessary. Currently, the U.S. has not enacted comprehensive federal legislation, primarily relying on state-level rules and some proposals still under consideration; the EU has implemented strict reserve and audit requirements through the MiCA framework; Asia shows a diverse regulatory strategy: Singapore and Hong Kong enforce strict reserve requirements, Japan allows banks to issue stablecoins, while China has largely banned stablecoin-related activities. These differences reflect the trade-offs between "innovation" and "stability" in various regions.

Despite the lack of a globally unified regulatory framework, the use and adoption of stablecoins continue to grow steadily year by year.

Why Are They Issued?

As mentioned earlier, the initial purpose of stablecoins was to provide users with a reliable digital asset for payments or as a store of value pegged to major global currencies (especially the U.S. dollar). However, their issuance is not for public good but rather a highly profitable business opportunity, with Tether being the first company to discover and capitalize on this opportunity.

Tether launched USDT in 2014, becoming the first stablecoin and creating an extremely lucrative business model, particularly from the perspective of "profit per capita," making it one of the most successful projects in history. Its business logic is straightforward: Tether issues 1 USDT for every $1 received, and when users redeem their dollars, the corresponding amount of USDT is destroyed. The received dollars are then invested in safe short-term financial instruments (such as U.S. Treasury bonds), with the resulting income belonging to Tether.

Understanding how stablecoins make money is key to grasping the economic logic behind them.

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

Although the business model of stablecoins appears very simple, Tether cannot control its primary source of income—interest rates set by central banks (especially the Federal Reserve). When interest rates are high, Tether can earn substantial profits; however, when rates are low, profitability can decline significantly.

Currently, the high-interest-rate environment is very favorable for Tether. But what will happen if rates drop again in the future, even approaching zero? Will algorithmic stablecoins also be affected by interest rate fluctuations? Which type of stablecoin might perform better in such an economic environment? This article will further explore these questions and analyze how the stablecoin business model adapts to the changing macroeconomic environment.

2. Types of Stablecoins

Before analyzing the performance of stablecoins under different economic conditions, it is crucial to understand the operational mechanisms of different types of stablecoins. While all stablecoins share the common goal of maintaining a stable value linked to real-world assets, each type of stablecoin reacts differently to interest rate changes and the overall market environment. Below, we will introduce several main types of stablecoins, their mechanisms, and their responses to different economic changes.

Fiat-backed Stablecoins

Fiat-backed stablecoins are currently the most well-known and widely used type of stablecoin, essentially tokenizing the U.S. dollar in a centralized manner.

Their operational mechanism is very simple: whenever a user deposits $1, the issuer mints 1 corresponding stablecoin; when a user redeems dollars, the issuer destroys the corresponding tokens and returns an equal amount of dollars.

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

The profit model of fiat-backed stablecoins mainly operates behind the scenes. Issuers invest users' deposits in various short-term and safe financial instruments, such as government bonds, secured loans, and cash equivalents, and sometimes allocate to more volatile assets, such as cryptocurrencies (like Bitcoin) or precious metals. The income generated from these investments constitutes the primary source of revenue for the issuers.

However, high returns also come with significant risks. One ongoing major challenge is compliance issues. Governments in many countries have scrutinized fiat-backed stablecoins, arguing that they are essentially equivalent to issuing "digital currency" and must comply with strict financial regulatory requirements.

While most stablecoin issuers have successfully navigated regulatory pressures without experiencing severe business disruptions, significant challenges still arise. A notable example is the EU's MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets) regulation, which recently prohibited USDT (Tether) from circulating in certain markets due to non-compliance with its strict regulatory requirements.

Another major risk is "depeg risk." Stablecoin issuers often invest a large amount of reserve assets in various investment tools. If a large number of users simultaneously request to redeem tokens, the issuer may have to quickly sell these assets, potentially incurring significant losses. This situation could trigger a chain reaction similar to a "bank run," making it difficult for the issuer to maintain the peg of the token to the dollar, and could even lead to bankruptcy.

The most prominent case occurred in March 2023, involving USDC (issued by Circle). At that time, when Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed, rumors quickly spread in the market that Circle had a large amount of reserves held at SVB, raising concerns about Circle's liquidity and whether USDC could maintain its peg. This panic led to a brief decoupling of USDC. This incident highlighted the risks when stablecoin reserves are held in centralized banks. Fortunately, Circle resolved the issue within days, restoring market confidence and re-stabilizing USDC's peg.

Currently, the two main fiat-backed stablecoins in the market are USDT (Tether) and USDC (Circle).

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

Commodity-backed stablecoins represent an innovative category within the stablecoin ecosystem, issuing corresponding digital tokens backed by tangible physical assets (usually precious metals like gold and silver, or commodities like oil and real estate).

The operational mechanism of this type of stablecoin is similar to that of fiat-backed stablecoins: for every unit of physical commodity deposited, the issuer mints an equivalent token. Users can typically redeem these tokens for the physical commodity itself or for an equivalent amount of cash, at which point the corresponding tokens are destroyed.

The issuer's revenue primarily comes from the fees associated with the minting (creation) and redemption (destruction) of tokens. For example, Pax Gold (PAXG) charges a small fee when processing the creation and destruction of tokens, although Paxos currently does not charge storage fees for the gold it holds. Additionally, issuers may also profit by providing services for trading and exchanging tokens with dollars or physical commodities.

Similarly, Tether Gold (XAUT) generates revenue from fees associated with redemptions and deliveries. Users who redeem XAUT tokens for physical gold bars or convert gold into cash through Tether will incur related fees. For example, during the redemption process, a fee of 25 basis points (0.25%) is charged based on the gold price, and if physical delivery is chosen, shipping costs must also be paid. If users opt to sell the redeemed gold bars in the Swiss market, an additional fee of 25 basis points will apply.

However, this type of stablecoin also faces risks, particularly the volatility of commodity prices, which may affect the token's stable peg. Additionally, compliance issues pose a significant challenge. Commodity-backed stablecoins are typically subject to strict regulatory requirements and must have transparent and secure custody arrangements.

Currently, successful commodity-backed stablecoins in the market include Paxos' Pax Gold (PAXG) and Tether's Tether Gold (XAUT), both supported by gold reserves, providing investors with convenient digital exposure to commodities.

In summary, commodity-backed stablecoins connect traditional commodity investments with digital finance, offering investors stability and exposure to physical assets while emphasizing regulatory compliance and transparency.

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

Crypto-asset-backed stablecoins are an important category within the stablecoin system, maintaining a stable value pegged to fiat currency (usually the U.S. dollar) through cryptocurrency collateral. Unlike fiat or commodity-backed stablecoins, these tokens rely on smart contract technology to create a transparent and automated system.

The basic mechanism is as follows: users lock crypto assets (usually over-collateralized) in a smart contract to mint stablecoins. The over-collateralization design can buffer against price fluctuations of the crypto assets, ensuring that the stablecoin maintains its pegged value. When users redeem stablecoins, they return an equivalent amount of stablecoins, and the system destroys the tokens, releasing the originally collateralized crypto assets.

The profit model of crypto-backed stablecoins mainly includes:

  • Charging interest to users who borrow stablecoins;
  • Charging liquidation fees to users whose collateral falls below the liquidation threshold;
  • Governance mechanism rewards set within the protocol to incentivize token holders and liquidity providers.

DAI (now known as USDs), issued by MakerDAO (now renamed SKY), is a representative example, primarily collateralized by crypto assets within the Ethereum ecosystem. MakerDAO's revenue sources include charging stability fees (interest) to users borrowing USDs and penalties during liquidation events. These fees collectively support the stable operation and sustainable development of the protocol.

Another example is the HONEY stablecoin issued by Berachain, which is currently primarily collateralized by USDC and pYUSD. HONEY's revenue sources include redemption fees: when users redeem HONEY and retrieve their collateral assets (USDC or pYUSD), Berachain charges a 0.05% fee.

Although these stablecoins are classified as "crypto-asset-backed," most are essentially wrapped versions of fiat-backed stablecoins, like USDC. While the initial goal was to rely entirely on native crypto assets as collateral to maintain stability, achieving true stability without relying on fiat-backed stablecoins remains very challenging in practice.

Of course, these assets also carry inherent risks. For example, the price volatility of the underlying crypto assets can pose significant challenges—such as triggering large-scale liquidations during sharp declines, potentially breaking the stablecoin's peg mechanism. Additionally, vulnerabilities in smart contracts or attacks on the protocol can severely threaten the stability of the entire system.

In summary, crypto-asset-backed stablecoins like USDs and HONEY play an important role in providing decentralized, transparent, and innovative financial solutions. However, despite being nominally crypto-collateralized, they often heavily rely on fiat-backed stablecoins in reality, necessitating more robust risk management mechanisms to maintain their resilience and credibility.

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

Treasury-backed stablecoins are a type of stablecoin supported by government bonds (especially U.S. Treasury bonds) as collateral. These stablecoins are typically pegged to the U.S. dollar, providing value stability while also offering passive income to holders through the interest earned on the underlying Treasury bonds. Therefore, they resemble investment tokens with yield, combining the stability of traditional stablecoins with investment characteristics.

For example, Ondo's USDY (U.S. Dollar Yield Token) is referred to as a tokenized note backed by short-term U.S. Treasury bonds and bank demand deposits. Its goal is to provide non-U.S. individual and institutional investors with the convenience of using stablecoins while offering high-quality yields denominated in U.S. dollars. After investors purchase USDY, the funds are used to buy U.S. Treasury bonds and partially deposited in banks, with the generated interest distributed proportionally to token holders. USDY is a "yield-bearing asset," meaning it passively appreciates as the interest from the underlying assets accumulates, increasing the token's value over time.

Another example is Hashnote's USYC (U.S. Dollar Yield Coin), which is the on-chain representation of Hashnote's Short-Duration Yield Fund (SDYF), investing in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds and participating in the repo and reverse repo markets. The return level of USYC is linked to the short-term "risk-free rate," while leveraging the speed, transparency, and composability advantages of blockchain, while minimizing risks related to protocols, custody, regulation, and credit. Users can redeem USYC for USDC or PYUSD on the same day (T+0) or the next day (T+1), with on-chain minting that is atomic and instantaneous. Like USDY, USYC is also a "yield-bearing asset," passively accumulating returns through the interest generated by the underlying assets.

Despite the dual advantages of stability and yield, these stablecoins also carry some risks:

  • Regulatory risk: Since these assets are typically aimed at non-U.S. users to avoid domestic regulatory requirements, future policy changes may introduce uncertainty;
  • Custody risk: Reliance on the issuer to properly manage and hold the underlying assets;
  • Liquidity risk: During periods of significant market volatility, users' redemption requests may be limited;
  • Counterparty risk: Especially in repo agreements, if a counterparty defaults, it may lead to losses;
  • Macroeconomic risk: Changes in interest rates may affect overall yield levels.

This type of token is often classified into a rapidly developing new category—"Treasury-backed crypto."

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

Algorithmic stablecoins are a type of stablecoin that relies on economic mechanisms and market incentives rather than being fully collateralized by fiat currency or traditional assets like government bonds to maintain stable value. These models typically use supply and demand adjustment mechanisms to maintain a pegged exchange rate (such as pegged to the U.S. dollar), but they often face challenges in extreme market conditions. The fundamental issue lies in their heavy reliance on sustained market confidence and effective incentive structures, which can easily fail under severe pressure.

USDe, issued by Ethena, is a new type of "algorithm-like" stablecoin that employs a hybrid model. It maintains stability through a "Delta-neutral hedging mechanism," holding crypto assets like BTC and ETH as collateral while establishing equivalent short positions in the derivatives market to hedge against price fluctuations of the underlying assets, thereby maintaining a stable peg to the U.S. dollar. USDe achieves a 1:1 full collateralization, making it more capital-efficient compared to over-collateralized models. Additionally, Ethena incorporates liquid stablecoins like USDC and USDT into its reserves to enhance liquidity and the efficiency of its hedging strategy.

Despite various innovations, algorithmic stablecoins still face significant risks: market instability, extreme volatility, or liquidity crises can disrupt their pegging mechanisms. Moreover, reliance on derivatives introduces counterparty risk and execution risk, making the system vulnerable to external shocks.

While new models like USDe attempt to mitigate these issues through structured hedging and diversified reserves, their long-term stability still depends on the overall liquidity situation and the ability to maintain effective operations in adverse market conditions.

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

3. Current Mainstream Stablecoins

When discussing stablecoins, USDT and USDC are undoubtedly the dominant forces in the market, serving as centralized liquidity pillars that occupy a core position in the crypto market. They have similar structures: both are issued by centralized entities, fully backed by fiat reserves, and are widely integrated into major exchanges and financial platforms.

USDT is issued by Tether, holding the largest market share, known for its deep liquidity and widespread adoption, especially in high-frequency trading environments. USDC, issued by Circle, positions itself as a more compliant and transparent option, favored by institutions and enterprises seeking a regulatory-friendly environment. Although there are slight differences in details, their core function is consistent: providing a stable, trustworthy digital dollar that supports the operation of the entire crypto ecosystem.

In contrast, USDS, DAI, and USDe represent the decentralized forces corresponding to fiat-backed stablecoins, although their degrees of decentralization vary. DAI and USDS essentially come from the same system—MakerDAO (now renamed Sky). Among them, USDS is an evolved version of DAI and is a key part of Sky's long-term planning.

Historically, DAI has been more decentralized, relying on over-collateralized crypto assets to maintain its pegged exchange rate; while USDS reflects Maker's trend towards a more structured and strategic direction, focusing on efficiency rather than purely pursuing decentralization.

At the same time, USDe is also an important decentralized stablecoin competitor but takes a completely different path. Unlike Maker's model of over-collateralization and governance mechanisms, USDe introduces a yield-generating structure, utilizing its collateral assets to provide additional returns to token holders.

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

USDT

When discussing stablecoins, USDT naturally becomes the dominant force, playing an important role as a centralized liquidity pillar in the crypto market. Issued by Tether, USDT holds the largest market share and is known for its deep liquidity and widespread adoption, especially important in high-frequency trading environments. It provides a stable and trustworthy digital dollar that supports the operation of the crypto ecosystem, becoming the primary medium for trading pairs, arbitrage opportunities, and cross-exchange liquidity provision. Its widespread acceptance solidifies its role in both centralized and decentralized finance.

Tether's revenue primarily comes from its large reserve asset management, which backs every issued USDT token. These reserve assets mainly include cash equivalents such as U.S. Treasury bonds, commercial paper, short-term deposits, money market instruments, and corporate bonds. By strategically allocating these reserves, Tether is able to accumulate interest and investment income, making a significant contribution to its revenue.

Additionally, Tether occasionally engages in short-term lending and trading of other financial instruments, further diversifying and enhancing its revenue sources. Through token issuance, redemption processes, and transaction fees on various blockchain platforms, Tether also generates additional income.

The following is its latest reserve report, clearly showing that over 80% of its reserves consist of cash, cash equivalents, and other short-term deposits, with approximately 80% specifically invested in Treasury bonds.

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

Essentially, Tether's revenue primarily relies on interest rates set by central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve's rates, as the appreciation of most of its reserve assets is directly related to these rates. Higher interest rates can significantly increase the returns Tether earns from its reserves, while lower rates can substantially reduce its income potential.

Importantly, unlike some other stablecoins, all income generated by Tether is retained by the issuer and not distributed to USDT token holders. This contrasts with yield-bearing stablecoins, which directly distribute returns to holders, highlighting a key difference in the business model of stablecoins.

Historical Revenue Trends

Historically, Tether's revenue trajectory has been closely linked to global interest rate trends. During the low-interest period from 2019 to early 2022, Tether's revenue growth was relatively modest, primarily due to its reliance on conservative investment strategies with limited returns.

However, starting in mid-2022, as major central banks actively raised interest rates to combat inflation, Tether's revenue saw significant growth. From June 2022 to early 2025, monthly revenue nearly increased tenfold, underscoring Tether's revenue sources' high sensitivity to macroeconomic changes and monetary policy decisions. This trend demonstrates the effectiveness of Tether's revenue model in a rising interest rate environment.

Nevertheless, revenue does not solely depend on interest rates. Even in a declining interest rate environment, as long as the supply of USDT significantly increases, Tether may still achieve revenue growth. A larger supply means more managed assets, which can offset lower yields, thereby maintaining or even increasing overall revenue.

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

USDC

USDC, issued by Circle, is one of the most trusted centralized stablecoins in the market. Known for its compliance and transparency, it is widely used in decentralized finance, institutional payments, and cross-chain applications. Its presence across multiple blockchains enhances its composability and ecosystem coverage.

A key feature of USDC is Circle's strict reserve structure and public disclosures. As of January 31, 2025, USDC's circulation exceeded $53.2 billion, fully backed by $53.28 billion in reserves, which are certified by independent accounting firms. These reserve funds are divided into the following components:

Circle Reserve Fund: A government money market fund holding $47.26 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds and repurchase agreements.

Segregated Bank Accounts: Holding an additional $6.02 billion, deposited in regulated financial institutions.

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

Circle earns income by managing these reserve assets, primarily relying on interest income from U.S. Treasury bonds and overnight lending arrangements. Although structurally similar to Tether's model, Circle differentiates itself through its funding structure, representing 100% reserve fund equity for USDC holders. This not only provides clearer regulatory separation but may also allow for more flexible future product integrations.

Unlike decentralized alternatives, USDC does not directly distribute earnings to users. Instead, the income is retained by the issuer, prioritizing simplicity, compliance, and capital preservation.

Historical Revenue Trends

Circle's revenue trajectory is closely tied to the overall interest rate environment, as its conservative investment strategy primarily focuses on short-term government debt.

In 2022, as the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates, Circle's revenue steadily grew, peaking at $146.5 million in March 2023. However, later that year, pressures from competitive stablecoins, blockchain reliability issues (especially on Solana), and reputational fluctuations related to banking partners led to a gradual decline in revenue. By the end of 2023, monthly revenue had fallen to below $90 million.

In 2024, as redemption volumes decreased, cryptocurrency activity rebounded, and the high interest rate environment persisted, Circle's revenue began to recover, with August revenue rising to $126 million and ending the year on a strong note. In February 2025, Circle set a record for the highest monthly revenue, reaching $163.7 million.

This trend highlights the resilience of USDC and the close relationship between stablecoin revenue models and monetary policy. Circle's ongoing recovery emphasizes its ability to maintain user trust and liquidity dominance throughout market cycles.

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

USDS/DAI (SKY)

USDS is the current evolution of DAI, the first major decentralized stablecoin issued by MakerDAO, designed to provide a censorship-resistant alternative for assets backed by traditional fiat currency. While both belong to the Maker ecosystem, there are structural differences in their collateral models and target use cases.

DAI is an over-collateralized stablecoin supported by a mix of cryptocurrencies, RWAs, and stablecoins. Users mint DAI by depositing collateral such as ETH, stETH, or USDC into Maker Vaults, ensuring it is always sufficiently collateralized. This design gives DAI strong risk resistance but also limits its scalability.

On the other hand, USDS represents MakerDAO's evolution towards a more traditional finance-compatible stablecoin. While USDS remains over-collateralized, it adopts a structured reserve approach, including tokenized short-term U.S. Treasury bonds. This aligns it with institutional demand, making it a competitor to stablecoins like USDT and USDC while maintaining MakerDAO's decentralized governance model.

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

The transition from DAI to USDS reflects a shift towards broader institutional adoption. While DAI was initially a crypto-native stablecoin primarily supported by decentralized assets, USDS optimizes its collateral structure by introducing more RWAs, particularly U.S. Treasury bonds.

Additionally, USDS enhances stability through a direct convertibility mechanism, making it easier to maintain its peg to the dollar. Unlike DAI's early reliance on external DeFi incentives, USDS was designed from the outset to provide built-in yield through the DSR, making it more attractive in both DeFi and TradFi environments. This structure aligns with the increasingly popular RWA yield DeFi strategies expected in 2025.

Transparency is foundational to the Sky ecosystem's design; it serves not only as a tool for maintaining the peg mechanism but also as a prerequisite for building trust, attracting institutional participation, and responsible capital allocation. In an environment managing billions of dollars in assets, both users and institutions demand clear visibility into where these funds are held, how they are used, and the system's backing.

Therefore, Sky provides a public real-time dashboard that clearly displays the backing, distribution, and yield of USDS. However, stability cannot be achieved solely through transparency; the peg is maintained through over-collateralization, risk-managed asset allocation, and protocol-level mechanisms.

USDS consistently maintains more collateral than its issuance. As of now, USDS's total collateral base exceeds $10.8 billion, with a supply of approximately $8.3 billion, ensuring sufficient buffers to handle market fluctuations or redemptions. Its collateral is distributed across several key sources:

  • Stablecoins (54.8%): Primarily supported through the LitePSM module, which is a stable anchoring module allowing 1:1 exchanges between DAI and USDC to support USDS's peg.

  • Spark (24.7%): Sky's lending and liquidity protocol, minting USDS with high-quality, yield-generating collateral.

  • Cash RWAs (9.7%): Fully held in BlockTower Andromeda, a strategy investing in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, providing low-risk real-world yields.

  • Core (9%): Sky's over-collateralized Vault system, where users mint USDS using assets like ETH and stETH under strict collateral thresholds.

These mechanisms collectively ensure that USDS remains stable, over-collateralized, and supported by a range of liquid, yield-generating assets, while transparency ensures that anyone can verify this at any time.

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

Historical Revenue Trends

The chart above shows the cumulative revenue of the Sky protocol from mid-2022 to early 2025. Although revenue grew steadily in the initial months, by the end of 2023, the growth rate of revenue significantly accelerated with the expansion of DeFi integrations, increased adoption of USDS, and deeper engagement with real-world assets (such as short-term U.S. Treasury bonds), coinciding with the beginning of rising interest rates. By early 2025, cumulative revenue had exceeded $500 million, reflecting Sky's ability to capture yields while sustainably scaling in both crypto-native and institutional strategies.

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

USDe

USDe is a delta-neutral synthetic dollar stablecoin, utilizing a synthetic dollar structure maintained through perpetual futures, developed by Ethena Labs. Unlike traditional stablecoins backed by fiat reserves or over-collateralized crypto assets, USDe maintains its peg to the dollar through automated hedging strategies. This gives it characteristics of being fully backed, scalable, and censorship-resistant. Ethena also offers sUSDe, a yield-bearing version of USDe that can earn rewards through liquid staking assets and funding rate arbitrage in the futures market.

Since its public launch in early 2024, Ethena has rapidly expanded, reaching a supply of $6 billion within ten months, making USDe the third-largest dollar-denominated asset in the crypto space. It has also become a foundational component of DeFi, integrated into major protocols such as Pendle, Morpho, and Aave, with its adoption driving significant growth. In addition to DeFi, USDe has penetrated CeFi, currently integrated as margin collateral on about 60% of centralized exchanges, surpassing the USDC balance on Bybit in less than a month.

Diving into revenue, Ethena has performed impressively, becoming the second-fastest dApp in history to reach $100 million in revenue (only behind Pump.fun), achieving this milestone in 251 days. In 2024, Ethena emerged as a dominant force in DeFi, with its assets accounting for over 50% of Pendle's TVL, approximately 30% of Morpho's TVL linked to Ethena-related assets, and becoming the fastest-growing new asset on Aave, reaching $1.2 billion in deposits in just three weeks.

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

Ethena's next phase is defined by Convergence, aiming to achieve the integration of DeFi, CeFi, and TradFi through USDe. By introducing iUSDe, a wrapped version of sUSDe designed for institutional adoption, Ethena plans to offer a high-yield, crypto-native dollar product tailored for asset managers, private credit funds, and exchange-traded products. By connecting capital flows and interest rates across various financial systems, Ethena positions USDe as a cornerstone in the evolving digital dollar space.

How does USDe work?

USDe maintains stability through a delta-neutral hedging strategy, ensuring its value is unaffected by market fluctuations. When users mint USDe, the collateral received by Ethena can include ETH, BTC, LSTs, USDT, USDC, and SOL. To neutralize price risk, Ethena opens a short position in perpetual futures for each collateral received. For example, if the collateral is ETH, Ethena shorts ETH perpetual futures.

This mechanism ensures that any price fluctuations in the collateral are hedged by the corresponding futures position. If the collateral appreciates, the short position incurs a loss, but this is offset by the appreciation of the collateral. Conversely, if the collateral price declines, the short position profits, offsetting the depreciation of the collateral. This mechanism ensures that USDe remains stable, unaffected by market fluctuations.

Unlike other synthetic stablecoins, Ethena does not use additional leverage, relying only on the natural leverage applied by derivatives exchanges to assess collateral. This minimizes liquidation risk, ensuring that each short position is 1:1 backed by assets.

To enhance security, Ethena's supporting assets are kept on-chain and are custodied through an off-chain settlement system to reduce counterparty risk. Ethena never fully relinquishes control of the assets to derivatives platforms; instead, they are only used to provide margin for its short hedging positions, ensuring decentralized and transparent asset management.

Ethena generates income by capturing a portion of the yields produced by its delta-neutral strategy, including:

  • Funding rate arbitrage: Ethena profits when the funding rate for perpetual futures is positive.

  • Liquid staking rewards: Staking yields generated from the collateralized LSTs, a portion of which is retained by Ethena.

  • Basis profits: Ethena benefits from the efficiency differences between the spot and futures markets.

  • Protocol fees: A portion of total returns is allocated to reserve funds and protocol treasuries, ensuring long-term sustainability.

While USDe's delta-neutral strategy minimizes exposure to price fluctuations, it remains susceptible to funding rate volatility, market imbalances, and counterparty risks. If funding rates remain negative for an extended period, Ethena's reserve fund will absorb the losses, but prolonged negative rates could exert pressure on the system.

Liquidity crises or extreme volatility could lead to temporary decoupling if discrepancies arise between the spot and futures markets. Additionally, reliance on centralized exchanges for hedging introduces counterparty risk, but Ethena mitigates this risk by keeping assets on-chain and conducting off-chain settlements.

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

Historical Revenue Trends

Ethena opened to the public on February 19, 2024, allowing users to mint USDe by depositing stablecoins and staking them as sUSDe to earn yields. In less than a year, the protocol's cumulative revenue exceeded $320 million, making it one of the fastest profit curves in DeFi history.

The steady growth of revenue in the first half of 2024 reflects the continuous increase in USDe supply and widespread adoption across DeFi and CeFi platforms. However, the sharp acceleration in revenue began in October 2024, coinciding with the following factors:

  • Integration of USDe and sUSDe into major lending markets like Aave and Morpho.

  • Increased market volatility leading to a surge in funding rate arbitrage opportunities.

  • Launch of new institutional products like iUSDe, extending Ethena's influence into the TradFi space.

By the first quarter of 2025, the protocol's cumulative revenue surpassed $300 million. Despite being live for less than 15 months, Ethena has already positioned itself among the top revenue generators in the crypto space. This rapid growth indicates strong market demand and validates the sustainability of USDe's delta-neutral model.

However, after peaking at the end of 2024, monthly revenue saw a sharp decline in the first quarter of 2025. This decline was related to a decrease in funding rate arbitrage opportunities, as the funding rates for perpetual futures on major exchanges began to normalize. With reduced volatility and a more neutral funding environment, one of Ethena's primary revenue sources temporarily weakened, highlighting the model's sensitivity to market conditions.

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

4. The Correlation Between Interest Rates and Revenue

Interest rates are one of the most decisive factors affecting the revenue performance of stablecoins. As mentioned earlier, stablecoins generate income through various mechanisms, including interest-bearing reserves, market arbitrage, and other yield-generating strategies. Since many of the assets held by stablecoins are influenced by changes in interest rates, their income potential is often affected by macroeconomic conditions.

To better understand this relationship, we adjust revenue by dividing it by supply. This normalization allows for more accurate comparisons, as an increase in stablecoin supply naturally leads to greater potential income generation. By focusing on revenue per unit of supply, we can isolate the direct impact of interest rate fluctuations on the profitability of stablecoins.

USDT

In-depth chart analysis vividly illustrates the positive correlation between Tether's revenue and interest rate fluctuations. Historical charts compare Tether's quarterly revenue with changes in interest rates, showing a clear synchronicity that highlights the near-instantaneous response of revenue to interest rate adjustments.

These visualizations effectively emphasize Tether's revenue sensitivity to the interest rate environment, providing predictive insights into potential future performance scenarios. They underscore the importance of proactive financial and reserve management strategies to mitigate income risks associated with interest rate fluctuations or downturns.

The following chart shows the correlation between interest rates and adjusted stablecoin revenue. Each chart illustrates the relationship changes between revenue per unit of stablecoin supply (vertical axis) and interest rates (horizontal axis).

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

The chart further highlights the strong positive correlation between interest rates and adjusted revenue per unit of supply for USDT (R = 0.937). This indicates that as interest rates rise, the revenue per unit of supply for USDT also increases, reflecting the growth in yields from USDT's investments in U.S. Treasury bonds. As interest rates rise, the yields on these bonds increase, directly impacting USDT's overall revenue.

This correlation highlights how USDT effectively manages its reserve assets to benefit from changing economic conditions, particularly in a high-yield environment. It reflects USDT's flexible financial strategy and its strong positioning during rising interest rates, enhancing its economic stability and role as a reliable digital asset. As mentioned earlier, a 100% correlation is impossible, as 80% of reserves are held in cash and Treasury bonds, with 80% specifically allocated to Treasury bills.

USDC

The economic strength of USDC is reflected in its strategic reserve management. As interest rates rise, USDC benefits from its substantial holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds, which provide higher returns. USDC invests 75%-80% of its reserves in Treasury bonds, maintaining stability while generating additional income as bond yields increase. The direct correlation with interest rate fluctuations allows USDC to profit in a rising interest rate environment, further solidifying its position as a yield-generating stablecoin.

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

The trend line shows a strong positive correlation (R = 0.889), indicating that as interest rates rise, the revenue per unit of supply for USDC correspondingly increases. This is consistent with expectations, as like other reserve-backed stablecoins, USDC derives income from high-yield assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds.

This correlation underscores USDC's ability to optimize reserves and adapt to economic changes. It also emphasizes how reserve-backed stablecoins can leverage rising interest rates to enhance yield generation, further solidifying their role in the digital asset ecosystem.

While this correlation is strong (R = 0.889), it is lower than that of USDT due to differences in reserve composition. USDT maintains a larger portion of its reserves (approximately 80%) in short-term U.S. Treasury bills, which are highly sensitive to interest rate changes. In contrast, USDC's reserves are more diversified, with only 37.5% of reserves in Treasury bonds and nearly 50% allocated to repurchase agreements, which respond more indirectly to interest rate fluctuations. This diversified approach enhances liquidity and stability but slightly weakens the direct impact of interest rate hikes on yields, resulting in a lower correlation. In summary, the direct comparison of revenues between USDT and USDC highlights the influence of reserve composition and yield strategies.

SKY (DAI/USDs)

The economic strength of SKY is reflected in its strategic reserve management. As interest rates rise, the SKY stablecoins (USDS and DAI) benefit from their exposure to yield-generating assets.

Unlike USDC and USDT, which are traditionally supported by institutional reserves, DAI has historically relied on cryptocurrency collateral assets such as ETH. However, in October 2022, MakerDAO began allocating a significant portion of DAI reserves to U.S. Treasury bonds and other real-world assets (RWAs) to capture higher yields. As of July 2023, over 65% of DAI's reserves were linked to RWAs, making its income more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. This shift has brought DAI's behavior closer to that of institutional stablecoins, directly benefiting from rising interest rates.

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

As expected, the change in DAI's reserve composition has led to a strong positive correlation (R = 0.937) between interest rates and the revenue per unit of supply for SKY stablecoins. The data confirms that higher interest rates contribute to increased income generation, further validating that SKY stablecoins now perform similarly to yield-optimized institutional stablecoins.

USDe

The revenue model of USDe is primarily based on funding rate arbitrage in the perpetual futures market, rather than traditional interest-bearing assets like U.S. Treasury bonds. As we have seen, its hedging strategy involves holding short positions in perpetual futures, profiting from fees paid by long traders when imbalances occur in open contracts.

When demand for long positions increases, funding rates rise, making it more expensive to hold long positions while providing profit opportunities for short traders (including USDe). However, this revenue model is less directly affected by traditional interest rate changes and relies more on market volatility, trader positions, and overall leverage demand in the crypto market.

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

The trend line shows a weak positive correlation (R = 0.256), indicating that while higher interest rates may have some impact on USDe's revenue, this relationship is not particularly strong.

This is consistent with expectations, as USDe's revenue model is primarily driven by the conditions of the perpetual futures market rather than interest rate changes. The role of funding rates and leverage demand in income generation far outweighs that of traditional interest rate hikes.

This correlation highlights that USDe's earnings depend on trader behavior rather than direct exposure to real-world interest rate changes. While lower interest rates may encourage greater risk-taking and leverage use in the crypto market, USDe's profitability remains closely tied to funding rate imbalances in perpetual futures trading.

5. The Impact of Interest Rates Falling to 0%

Interest Rates

Interest rates represent the cost of borrowing or, conversely, the return earned on lending or depositing funds. Central banks, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, set benchmark interest rates (e.g., the federal funds rate) to manage economic growth, control inflation, and stabilize the financial system. Lower interest rates typically encourage borrowing and stimulate economic activity but may also fuel inflation.

Conversely, higher interest rates suppress borrowing, slowing economic expansion but helping to curb inflationary pressures. Historically, interest rates fluctuate significantly based on economic cycles and crises, often nearing zero during economic recessions (e.g., the 2008 financial crisis, COVID-19 pandemic) and rising sharply during inflationary periods (e.g., post-pandemic 2022-2024). Interest rate fluctuations directly affect the yields on Treasury bills (T-Bills) and bonds, which are crucial for stablecoin issuers that rely on these investment returns.

Historical Interest Rates

The most critical interest rate to monitor is the rate set by the U.S. Federal Reserve, particularly the federal funds rate, due to the global dominance of the dollar as a primary reserve currency and its widespread influence on international financial markets. Changes in U.S. interest rates have significant implications for global economic activity, currency valuations, investment flows, and borrowing costs, making it an important benchmark for global financial stability.

How do stablecoin issuers profit from U.S. Treasury bonds and interest rates?

Historical charts clearly illustrate several major interest rate cycles, including the historically high rates set in the early 1980s to combat inflation, followed by a steady decline into the low-rate environment of the past two decades. The 2008 financial crisis particularly forced rates close to zero to stimulate economic recovery.

Specifically, during the last interest rate cycle (2010-2020), the Federal Reserve maintained rates at historically low levels (near 0%) for an extended period, only beginning to gradually raise them as the economy recovered from 2015 to 2018. However, the outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2020 prompted another significant reduction in rates to near-zero levels, aimed at countering economic slowdown, ensuring liquidity, and stabilizing financial markets.

Comparison of Interest Rates and Revenue Correlation

As previously discussed, the revenue models of certain stablecoins are highly dependent on interest rates, while others have structures that isolate them from these fluctuations.

The provided data clearly demonstrates this distinction. USDT, USDC, and SKY all exhibit high correlations (R ~0.89–0.94), highlighting their significant dependence on prevailing interest rates. Their revenues primarily stem from traditional investments, such as Treasury bonds, making them vulnerable to risks when rates approach zero, which can severely impact their profitability.

In stark contrast, USDe shows a significantly weaker correlation (R = 0.256), reflecting its entirely different revenue generation approach. USDe's income primarily derives from mechanisms in the crypto market, such as funding rate arbitrage in perpetual futures and staking yields, rather than traditional assets influenced by interest rates.

In summary, these data strongly indicate that fiat-backed and Treasury-backed stablecoins (like USDT, USDC, and SKY) face considerable risks in low-interest-rate environments. In contrast, algorithmic stablecoins like USDe, with their alternative income strategies, demonstrate greater resilience and may serve as a strategic diversification tool in portfolios during interest rate declines, providing relative stability.

Scenarios of Interest Rates Falling to 0%

In scenarios where interest rates return to 0%, the impacts on stablecoins vary significantly depending on their revenue models and asset allocations:

Tether

Since USDT primarily generates income through traditional financial assets (such as Treasury bills), a drop in interest rates to 0% would drastically reduce its income sources, severely impacting profitability. However, Tether's strategic diversification into alternative investments, including cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH) and precious metals, may partially mitigate this impact. Nevertheless, these alternative assets come with higher volatility and risks, which may not fully compensate for the lost interest income, potentially weakening its overall market position.

In 2024, Tether maintained very low operating costs, benefiting from a streamlined structure with fewer than 50 employees, minimal administrative expenses, and transaction fees from USDT token trading generally covering these operational costs. Legal and regulatory expenses were also relatively low, with no significant fines this year, in contrast to the $18.5 million fine paid to the New York Attorney General in 2021.

Financially, Tether ended 2024 with strong reserves, exceeding $7.1 billion in reserves beyond its obligations to USDT holders, with total equity around $20 billion. Given its conservative annual operating expenses (likely under $100 million), even if future income were to drop to zero, Tether could sustain operations for over 70 years, demonstrating its exceptional financial stability and nearly unlimited operational capacity.

Circle

Circle recently submitted an S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, indicating plans to go public on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker "CRCL."

In 2024, Circle reported total revenue of approximately $1.68 billion, a 16% increase from $1.45 billion in 2023. Notably, over 99% of this revenue came from reserve income, primarily earned from the assets backing USDC. The company's net income for 2024 was approximately $156 million, a significant decline from $268 million the previous year, mainly due to increased operating and distribution expenses.

The total operating expenses for 2024 were approximately $492 million, with most allocated to employee compensation ($263 million), general administrative expenses ($137 million), IT infrastructure ($27 million), depreciation and amortization (about $51 million), marketing expenses ($17 million), and digital asset losses ($4 million). Additionally, Circle incurred approximately $1.01 billion in distribution and transaction costs, of which about $908 million was paid to major distribution partner Coinbase.

As of December 31, 2024, Circle held $751 million in cash and cash equivalents, along with $294 million in other liquid investments, totaling approximately $1.045 billion in available liquidity. When estimating the company's financial sustainability in a zero-revenue scenario, it is important to distinguish between these two categories of assets:

The $751 million in cash and cash equivalents represents highly liquid, immediately available funds—suitable for conservative financial sustainability estimates. Based solely on this, and assuming current annual operating expenses of $492 million, Circle's financial sustainability period would be approximately 18 months.

If the entire $1.045 billion in liquidity (cash and other liquid assets) is included, and assuming these additional assets can be accessed without restrictions, the financial sustainability period could extend to about 25 months.

A more conservative approach focuses only on cash equivalents to avoid reliance on potentially less liquid or restricted assets. However, if Circle can effectively utilize a broader liquidity pool, it will have greater flexibility.

In a long-term zero-interest-rate environment, Circle's high dependence on interest income from reserves may significantly impact its revenue sources. If it fails to effectively diversify its income streams, the company's profitability could be adversely affected, potentially necessitating strategic adjustments such as modifying its cost structure or exploring new investment avenues.

SKY

In a 0% interest rate environment, the Sky protocol (formerly MakerDAO) indeed faces significant challenges, particularly regarding its revenue sources and financial sustainability. The protocol relies on U.S. Treasury bonds, ETH staking rewards, and DeFi income, meaning a complete absence of interest could greatly impact its revenue.

Revenue sources are under pressure:

Stability fees and borrowing demand: As borrowing demand decreases, the stability fees for DAI loans may decline. This decrease, coupled with reduced yields from U.S. Treasury bonds and other bonds, could exacerbate the financial pressure on the protocol.

DeFi funding fees: In a low-interest-rate environment, traders may be less willing to engage in leveraged operations, leading to a decrease in funding fees for DeFi activities.

Historically, the Sky protocol has demonstrated adaptability to low-interest-rate environments by adjusting parameters such as the Sky Savings Rate (SSR). For example, the SSR was recently lowered to 4.5%, effective March 24, 2025, to align with current market conditions.

The total asset value of the Sky protocol is approximately $220 million, comprising:

  • $101 million in DAI – stable
  • $82 million in SKY tokens – volatile
  • $36.4 million in MKR tokens – volatile
  • $243,000 in stkAAVE – volatile
  • $470,000 in ENS – volatile

This total value of $220 million combines liquid assets like DAI and volatile tokens like SKY and MKR, whose values may fluctuate based on market conditions. Liquid assets are the most readily usable source of funds for the protocol's operations, while volatile tokens represent a more strategic asset class influenced by market volatility.

The operational cycle is the length of time the Sky protocol can operate without generating new revenue, based on current assets and annual operating expenditures. The protocol's annual operating expenditure is estimated at $35 million. The calculation is as follows:

If only liquid assets (DAI) are considered: Operational cycle = $101 million ÷ $35 million = 2.89 years

If the total assets at current prices (liquid + volatile assets) are considered: Operational cycle = $220 million ÷ $35 million = 6.29 years

In a 0% interest rate scenario, the financial sustainability of the Sky protocol primarily relies on the value of volatile assets like SKY and MKR, whose fluctuations may impact the overall operational cycle. However, based solely on the surplus of the DAI system, the Sky protocol can sustain operations for approximately 2.89 years without generating additional revenue. If the entire asset pool (including liquid and volatile assets) is considered, Sky can sustain operations for about 6.29 years, assuming no other significant market changes.

As a protocol that has historically demonstrated adaptability, the Sky protocol can adjust its fee structure and make strategic adjustments in asset allocation to respond to a long-term low-interest-rate environment.

Ethena

If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates to 0%, several factors may affect USDe's ability to maintain and increase yields. Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, making leveraged operations more attractive to traders and investors. In traditional markets, this typically drives capital into higher-risk assets as returns on fixed-income instruments decrease, prompting investors to seek higher returns elsewhere. This dynamic also applies to the crypto market, where a lower interest rate environment often leads to capital inflows into cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

As more liquidity enters the market, traders are more likely to take leveraged long positions on crypto assets, expecting prices to continue rising. This creates imbalances in the perpetual contract market, with long demand exceeding short demand. Consequently, funding rates rise, making it more expensive to hold long positions, while short traders benefit, as seen in the strategies employed by USDe.

However, these benefits do not come without potential risks. If interest rates remain low for an extended period, USDe's yields may eventually stabilize or even decline as market participants adjust their strategies to fit the new normal. This adjustment may manifest as reduced leverage or changes in trading strategies. Furthermore, while the low-interest-rate environment initially supports USDe's yield generation through perpetual contract funding rates, the long-term stability of these conditions may encourage a shift in investor behavior toward assets that currently generate the highest yields.

From a protocol perspective, Ethena is in a favorable financial position. The project has raised over $120 million through venture capital and token sales and maintains a reserve fund of approximately $61 million, verifiable through the on-chain wallet 0x2b5ab59163a6e93b4486f6055d33ca4a115dd4d5. This reserve fund acts as a buffer in a negative yield environment, supporting the stability of USDe. Ethena also employs a streamlined team, with estimated annual operating expenses of $2 million to $5 million, allowing the project to sustain operations for several years even if protocol revenues significantly shrink.

In summary, while the low-interest-rate environment presents a unique opportunity for USDe to maintain attractiveness in the short term, its long-term sustainability relies on the persistence of market activity and volatility. Nevertheless, Ethena's strong reserve position and low burn rate provide a solid financial buffer, ensuring the protocol can operate stably during prolonged low-yield periods without compromising its core stability.

6. Conclusion

The stablecoin ecosystem is closely tied to macroeconomic dynamics, particularly interest rates. As this analysis shows, there are significant differences in the performance and sustainability of various stablecoin models in a scenario where interest rates fall to 0%.

Most Affected:

USDC relies almost entirely on the yields from U.S. Treasury bonds, making its business model structurally fragile in a long-term low-interest-rate environment without effective diversification. High operating costs and relatively limited treasury reserves further constrain Circle's long-term operational capacity.

Significantly Affected but More Resilient:

USDT and SKY will also face considerable revenue compression as they rely on interest-bearing assets. However, both have some buffers. Tether (USDT) holds substantial treasury surpluses, has extremely low operating costs, and invests partially in diversified assets (such as Bitcoin and gold), giving it a longer financial runway under zero-interest conditions.

SKY (USDS/DAI) also faces the risk of declining yields. However, it maintains diverse revenue sources through DeFi-native mechanisms (such as protocol fees, cryptocurrency collateral liquidation, and smart contract lending), providing greater operational flexibility. Additionally, the protocol can rely on governance token sales to cover costs, as demonstrated in past cycles.

Least Affected/Most Adaptive:

Ethena (USDe) stands out with its market-driven, crypto-native revenue model that does not rely on interest-bearing instruments. Instead, Ethena captures value through perpetual futures funding rates, staking rewards, and market inefficiencies. In a 0% interest world, USDe may even benefit from increased leverage and speculation, making it one of the few projects that could thrive while other stablecoins contract.

However, in the long run, a sustained low-interest-rate environment could lead to neutral or bearish market conditions, potentially reducing Ethena's profitability. In fact, when funding rates become strongly negative for shorts, the protocol may even face short-term losses.

This comparative analysis highlights a key insight: income diversification is no longer optional but essential. In a world where interest rates may return to historical lows, stablecoin issuers overly reliant on traditional financial instruments face significant risks of profit decline. Protocols with flexible, crypto-native revenue engines, particularly those like USDe, may not only weather the storm but emerge stronger.

Ultimately, the sustainability of the stablecoin market will depend not only on peg stability or market acceptance but also on resilience across economic systems. Protocols that adapt through product innovation, diversified collateral, or revenue mechanisms will define the next generation of digital dollars.

It is also worth noting that Circle and Tether may already be preparing for a world of low-interest yields. Each is actively building or participating in its blockchain infrastructure: Circle is developing Cortex, while Tether has Plasma. These efforts seem aimed at diversifying their service offerings and potentially opening new revenue streams beyond treasury yields.

Additionally, Circle's IPO announcement coincided with the conclusion of our research. The public details align closely with the vulnerabilities and strategic directions we identified, particularly the need for diversification and expansion through new ventures. The IPO could represent both a liquidity event and a shift toward a business model more focused on services and infrastructure.

Finally, one cannot help but wonder if Circle has a trump card up its sleeve. Is it quietly preparing to become the official issuer of the digital dollar? While no formal announcement confirms this, such a move would certainly align with its regulatory-first strategy and partnerships with the U.S. Who knows?

The secret to success in Web3 is just one step away—don’t let others get ahead while you remain in confusion.

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