Today, I need to get some work done. Thursday nights are always the busiest, mainly because I have to write the framework for the weekly report. I didn't expect this week to be particularly difficult to write. Besides being affected by events, I also need to discuss Bitcoin's slight independence, so I've included a lot more $BTC data. In the past, this data only accounted for about 1/4 of the report, but this time it exceeds half. Just finding the correlations for this data has been a huge hassle.

Yesterday, Powell's speech angered Trump again. If he was going to be angry, he should have been angry a long time ago. Since the March interest rate meeting, Powell has consistently stated in public appearances that he would not lower interest rates prematurely and that Trump does not have the authority to fire him. I don't know why Trump is so angry this time, but the independence of the Federal Reserve still leaves Trump with no options.

In terms of monetary policy, the impact of tariffs is gradually declining. Even though there was a second unpleasant incident between the EU and the US today, we are finally seeing a "very good" agreement between China and the US. However, the impact on risk markets is weakening. US stocks and cryptocurrencies are gradually becoming immune to tariffs; no matter how much noise is made, it won't be too exaggerated in the end.

Starting tomorrow, it will be a holiday. The sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is still quite good, with BTC hovering around $85,000, and the VIX has dropped below 30. I hope the next three days of the holiday can be a bit easier, and that nothing unexpected happens. From a data perspective, the last working day of each week is usually a day with less trading volume, and today is no exception, with a noticeable decrease in turnover rate.

Recently, the main participants in trading have still been short-term investors. However, the BTC price has not fluctuated much lately, so the turnover rate is also decreasing, with most investors maintaining a wait-and-see attitude.

However, it is also clear that the bottom formation around $83,000 is becoming increasingly strong, while investors in the range of $93,000 to $98,000 are very stable. This is rarely seen in history; the new bottom formation has not drained from the losing investors, and the losing investors are surprisingly stable. This can only indicate that BTC investors have strong expectations for the future.

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