In 2025, gold once again became the focus of the global capital markets. COMEX gold futures prices broke through $3,200 per ounce, setting a new historical high with an annual increase of over 20%. Meanwhile, although Bitcoin briefly surpassed $100,000 at the end of 2024, it fell into turbulence at the beginning of 2025, drifting further away from the narrative of "digital gold."
Why can gold, this "ancient asset," still soar against the trend in the global wave of digitization? What is its underlying value logic? And why has Bitcoin, once highly anticipated as "digital gold," failed to fulfill its promise of being a safe haven in real market turmoil?
Today, we will decode the ultimate value code of gold and explore its deep-seated commonalities with Bitcoin—scarcity, safe-haven attributes, and human consensus.
Gold's Surge in 2025: Three Core Engines
1. Global Central Banks' "De-dollarization" Gold Buying Wave: The Ultimate Credit Endorsement of Gold
In 2024, global central bank gold reserves increased by a net 1,136 tons, with a further 23% increase in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year. The People's Bank of China has increased its holdings for 17 consecutive months, reaching 2,267 tons. The underlying logic of this trend is the systemic erosion of the dollar's credit.
The frequent freezing of foreign assets by the U.S. (such as Russia's foreign exchange reserves) has forced emerging economies to accelerate "de-dollarization." Gold, as the only "hard currency" not controlled by any sovereign nation, has become the best alternative reserve asset for central banks.
The monetary attributes of gold are returning. In global foreign exchange reserves, gold's share has dropped from 60% in 2000 to 20% in 2020, and is now entering a value recovery cycle.
2. Geopolitical Risk Premium: The "Ultimate Insurance" in Turbulent Times
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, tense Middle East situation, and escalating U.S.-China trade frictions have led to a surge in geopolitical risk premiums in 2025. According to the World Gold Council, for every 1 standard deviation increase in geopolitical risk, the central price of gold rises by 4.2%.
Gold's performance in crises is nothing short of perfect:
- 2008 Financial Crisis: Gold rose by 26%, while the S&P 500 index plummeted by 38%.
- Early 2020 Pandemic: Gold increased by 15%, while Bitcoin fell by 65% during the 2022 Federal Reserve interest rate hike cycle.
- On the day the Russia-Ukraine war began: Gold surged by 4.2% in a single day, while Bitcoin plummeted by 7% during the Iranian airstrike on Israel.
Gold's safe-haven attribute stems from 5,000 years of human consensus—it's not just a "safe-haven asset," but the "ultimate currency."
3. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations and Inflation Hedge: Gold's "Anti-fragile" Property
Although the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, the market has already priced in expectations for rate cuts in the second half of 2025. A low-interest-rate environment reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, driving capital inflows.
More critically, the global government debt-to-GDP ratio has surpassed 130%, and long-term inflation expectations in the U.S. have strengthened. The demand for gold as an anti-inflation tool has surged, while the weakening trend of the dollar has also prompted investors to turn to gold for value preservation.
Gold's "anti-fragile" characteristic allows it to maintain value in various economic environments, including inflation, deflation, and stagflation.
Bitcoin's "Digital Gold" Dilemma: Why It Failed to Deliver Safe Haven Promises in 2025
Bitcoin was once highly anticipated as a potential "digital gold." However, the market performance in 2025 has challenged this narrative:
- Strong correlation with tech stocks: The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index surged to 0.8, resembling a "risk asset" rather than a "safe-haven asset."
- Policy uncertainty: The tightening of regulations by the U.S. SEC on cryptocurrency exchanges and ambiguous statements from the Trump administration regarding Bitcoin as a strategic reserve have intensified market sell-off pressures.
- Liquidity siphoning effect: With expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, funds flowed back into U.S. stocks and the gold market, leading to a single-day liquidation amount of $900 million in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's volatility (annualized over 80%) far exceeds that of gold (around 15%), making it difficult to fulfill the "safe haven" role in real market turmoil.
The Ultimate Commonality Between Gold and Bitcoin: Scarcity, Consensus, and Human Psychology
Despite their divergent performances, gold and Bitcoin share astonishing similarities in their underlying logic:
1. Scarcity: The Ultimate Rule of Value
Gold: Approximately 208,000 tons of gold have been mined on Earth, enough to fill just three Olympic swimming pools.
Bitcoin: A total supply of 21 million coins, with halving every four years, ensuring absolute scarcity.
Both cannot be arbitrarily increased, providing natural inflation resistance.
2. Independence from Sovereign Credit: Wealth Storage Beyond Government Control
Gold: Its 5,000-year history grants it a status independent of sovereign credit.
Bitcoin: Blockchain technology enables decentralization, free from control by any single government.
Both are "non-sovereign assets," becoming safe havens during turmoil in the global credit system.
3. Human Consensus: The Power of Belief
The value of gold stems from the global human consensus on its monetary status.
The value of Bitcoin relies on the consensus of blockchain believers.
The ultimate value of both is built on "enough people believing it has value."
2025 Outlook: Gold Remains the "King of Safe Havens," Bitcoin Needs Time to Validate
In the short term, if the situation in the Middle East worsens, gold could reach $3,950, or even $4,500. In the long term, gold will become the core vehicle for "de-dollarization," with stagnating gold production further reinforcing its scarcity.
If Bitcoin wants to truly become "digital gold," it needs to break through regulatory shackles and reduce volatility to below 30%. Currently, it remains a high-risk, high-volatility speculative asset rather than a stable safe-haven choice.
Investment Strategy Recommendations:
- Conservative: 70% Gold ETF + 20% Government Bonds + 10% Cash, with an annual target of 8%-12%.
- Aggressive: 50% Gold + 30% Bitcoin + 20% Tech Stocks, using gold to hedge Bitcoin volatility.
When black swans strike, gold remains the ticket to Noah's Ark. In the world of 2025, where geopolitical conflicts, debt crises, and currency system restructuring intertwine, the ultimate value of gold is once again validated. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, despite its immense potential, still needs time to prove whether it can truly inherit the mantle of "digital gold."
The magic of gold lies not in its chemical properties, but in the shared belief of humanity over thousands of years—this consensus is the true cornerstone of its value.
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