Author: Frank, PANews

The MEME market seems to have heated up once again. Starting in mid-March, Fartcoin began to rebound from its lows, rising approximately 349% over about a month, with a peak market capitalization close to $985 million. Meanwhile, the actions of on-chain MEME whales have also attracted attention, as some whales spent millions of dollars investing in Fartcoin, RFC, and other MEME coins, leading to a rapid increase in the market capitalization of related tokens.

Behind these movements, on April 11, the number of active addresses on the Solana chain once again surpassed 5.1 million, approaching the peak levels seen in January.

This round of MEME market mini-explosions raises the question: is the MEME bull market returning, or is it just a return of speculative funds in a boring market? PANews conducted a data analysis on several large addresses of MEME coins that have seen significant price increases recently, hoping to find clues.

Fartcoin Analysis: Whales Entered in Mid-March, Average Cost Around $0.62

First, after observing several previously high market cap tokens, PANews found that this round of MEME enthusiasm is not universal but concentrated in a few specific tokens. Most previously billion-dollar MEMEs (such as Trump, BONK, WIF, POPCAT) are still in a decline or bottoming phase. Among the tokens tracked by PANews, aside from Fartcoin, the others are either newly created coins in the last 1-2 months or tokens that have remained lukewarm since their issuance. The tokens observed by PANews include: RFC, Fartcoin, ALCH, GOHOME, DARK, House, FAT.

The token screening criteria were set for those with a market cap between $10 million and over $100 million, which have seen significant price increases or rebounds in the last 1 to 3 months. Among them, RFC has seen the largest increase recently, with a peak increase of 54 times in the last month.

The leading token in this round is Fartcoin, which began a new upward trend after hitting a low on March 10. Its market cap once reached $948 million, making it the leader in the MEME space again.

Analyzing the initial purchase times of the large holders reveals that the collective entry of these large holders began in mid-March and continued to rise until April 10.

Fartcoin whale entry time distribution

In terms of cost, the initial purchase costs of the top 1000 large holders are mainly concentrated between $0.2-$0.6 and $0.6-$0.9. Combining this with Fartcoin's chart, it can be seen that the proportion of large holders currently stuck above $1 is relatively small. Overall analysis shows that the current holding large holders mostly entered after the price low on March 12.

Fartcoin whale holding cost distribution

Overall, the initial purchase holding cost for Fartcoin's large holders is approximately $0.62. At the current price of $0.844, these new large holders have an average profit margin of about 36%.

23% Address Cross-Holding, DARK and RFC Follow a Repetitive Script

Overall, by comparing the top 1000 large holders of these tokens, it was found that 23% of the large holder addresses hold at least two or more types of tokens. Among them, the most held token is DARK, which was created most recently, but 116 large holders have repeatedly held this token.

Secondly, RFC has the highest number of repetitions, reaching 110 times. Fartcoin has recently attracted significant market attention, and its market cap is the highest among the analyzed tokens, but its repetition count is only 76 times. However, according to PANews analysis, this may be due to Fartcoin's market cap already rising to a high level, leading many holding large holders to exit or switch tokens. Due to the inability to track specific historical information of large holders at certain times, we cannot draw a definitive conclusion.

However, from the analysis of RFC and DARK, it seems that these two tokens have a relatively similar script.

First, in terms of their K-line chart trends, aside from the difference in creation time, other trends, including pullback patterns, are quite similar.

Additionally, the data on large holders repeatedly holding these two tokens is also quite close, both exceeding 110. In a more detailed analysis, PANews found that there are 75 addresses that simultaneously hold both DARK and RFC, which is the most common combination among large holders. The second most common combination is Fartcoin and House, with 35 addresses holding both tokens.

Further analyzing the timing of large addresses that simultaneously hold RFC and DARK, it was found that most large addresses first purchased these two tokens on April 13 and April 14, respectively.

From the K-line trend, April 13 was precisely the date when RFC surged rapidly, with a daily increase of 65% and a volatility of 107%. On April 14, DARK experienced a similar market trend, with a daily increase of 80% and a volatility of 218%. This significant surge occurring in quick succession seems to indicate a coordinated action by the main players.

Distribution date of RFC's main initial purchases

Distribution date of DARK's main initial purchases

Of course, it is important to note that RFC's market cap peaked at $138 million, while DARK's highest market cap was only $23 million. It appears that the whales behind this are not the absolute dominant force in the market, or that the main players have different expectations for these two tokens. Therefore, it cannot be assumed that DARK can replicate RFC's market cap scale.

Additionally, combinations of tokens such as Fartcoin, House, or DARK, House also appear frequently among large holders' holdings.

"Artificial Bull" Loves MEME Culture and AI

In the overall data, these overlapping large holders have a total holding amount of about $100 million across these seven tokens (excluding holdings from major exchanges like Gate, Bitget, Raydium, etc.), accounting for 8.47% of the market cap of these tokens.

As of the early morning of April 16, these tokens generally experienced some pullback. Among them, FAT pulled back 72.51% from its peak, House pulled back 50%, and the overall average pullback was about 37.12%. Only ALCH had a smaller pullback, as this project is the only one with actual applications related to AI. However, in terms of cycles, ALCH may just happen to be in a phase of market rotation and has not yet entered a selling cycle.

Behind this round of MEME market rotation, there seem to be traces of an artificially created MEME bull market. KOL @MasonCanoe stated on Twitter that the whale addresses driving up RFC are related to addresses that previously engaged in market-making for several tokens such as TRUMP, VIRTUAL, and LIBRA, and are also linked to several addresses that had previously positioned themselves in RFC. Based on this, @MasonCanoe believes that the rise of RFC is not coincidental and may signal a carefully orchestrated layout by large funds.

From the data performance, it seems that MEME on the Solana chain is indeed beginning to attract market attention again, driven by some whales. However, since this pulling effect does not benefit all MEME tokens, it can only be judged by tracking the real-time dynamics of these main funds. Additionally, from the classification of several tokens, it seems that tokens themed around cats, dogs, and frogs have not managed to secure a place in the recent rise, while tokens related to AI and MEME culture have performed prominently.

Overall, the recent MEME craze on the Solana chain is not a widespread phenomenon but is highly concentrated in a few specific tokens, with Fartcoin as the leader attracting a large number of new large holders entering after mid-March. More notably, behind the highly similar trends of RFC and DARK, there are many overlapping large holder addresses, with their main purchase times concentrated around the significant surges of April 13 and 14, strongly suggesting possible coordinated operations or main player rotations. This round of increase does not seem to be purely a spontaneous market behavior, bearing traces of an "artificial bull market," and whether this "artificial rain" can evolve into a natural influx of funds remains to be seen.

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