Testing in chaos, building momentum in restlessness | A market that is not a bull market is the most dangerous and the most seductive—

Recently, I've been out quite a bit, spending almost half of April outside. To be honest, it's quite tiring, and yesterday I spent most of the time catching up on sleep;

Those who know me are aware that I am a person who enjoys quietness and doesn't like socializing much, spending most of my time alone—

Going out is mainly to sense the market's emotions.

Emotion is the only standard that can be perceived and seen in the market; the essence of a washout is a psychological battle between market emotions and capital;

Market news may be false, breakouts may be false, and declines may also be false; only emotions are real;

So regardless of the bull or bear market, I take some time each year to sense everyone's emotions and views on the market. It's quite interesting to say that every time I go out to chat, observe, and listen, it recalibrates my perspective.

For example, during this phase, it seems that the market hasn't fluctuated much, but the emotional thermometer of the crowd is always the most sensitive indicator—

Greed, fear, wait-and-see, excitement;

These are hidden in snippets of conversation, body language, and the feelings people convey to each other. This time is no different; some people are already predicting a bull market is coming, some are still reminiscing about the last peak, some are starting to ponder new narratives, and some are still waiting for confirmation signals.

Everyone has different opinions, but it is precisely this seemingly "chaotic" voice that forms the embryonic shape of true market consensus: although many people claim the market has entered a bear phase, the excitement and inner stirrings of many are quite clear that the current market is a moment of mutual probing and calling each other foolish;

I even feel that this is more like the "night before a repressed bull market"—

On the surface, it is calm, but underneath, there are undercurrents. You can feel that: capital has not truly left the market, emotions have not completely died down; instead, there is a restrained restlessness building up.

A true bear market is when no one talks about projects, no one tweets, offline events are deserted, and the mainstream topic is "how to change careers." But now is not that time—if you casually scroll through social media, project teams are still striving to compete, market makers are laying out strategies, media is pushing narratives, and even at roadshows and gatherings, you can hear various debates about "the next opportunity" at the dinner table.

What does this indicate?

It indicates that emotions are still present, that capital is still there, and that people's spirits are not dead. As long as people's spirits are alive, the market is still there. You may not immediately see an index surge, but you can feel the energy of "about to take off" from a pair of eyes or a handshake.

So, I don't think this is a bear market. To be precise, it is a chaotic yet potential buildup period.

Everyone is waiting for a signal to open the floodgates; once it arrives, it won't be a slow takeoff, but an immediate ignition. The stage we are currently in may, in hindsight, be a quite golden position.

For me, creating content, making investments, and forming judgments ultimately all return to one point: understanding human nature.

And emotion is the most direct expression of human nature.

This year's emotions are more complex than I imagined. They are also more worth looking forward to.

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