Source: Cointelegraph Original: "{title}"

According to a report released by cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute on April 14, Bitcoin (BTC) is demonstrating an increasing ability to withstand macroeconomic headwinds compared to traditional financial markets.

The report points out that during the current ongoing market downturn, despite the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices falling to their lowest levels in a year and bond yields climbing to their highest levels since 2007, Bitcoin has remained relatively resilient.

"Bitcoin's decline has been relatively mild, returning to price levels seen during the U.S. election period," Wintermute wrote.

According to Wintermute, "This marks a significant shift in its historical behavior during crises." In the past, Bitcoin's declines often exceeded those of traditional financial indices. This change highlights Bitcoin's "notable increase in resilience" amid macroeconomic turmoil.

Alex Obchakevich, founder of Obchakevich Research, told Cointelegraph that he believes this is a temporary trend:

"As trade wars escalate, Bitcoin may once again become one of the risk assets, as investors are likely to seek refuge in gold."

Obchakevich noted that factors contributing to Bitcoin's stability include the growth of institutional investment brought about by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and its promotion as digital gold due to its decentralization and independence.

In the past week, Bitcoin's price rose by 7% to $83,700, nearing $86,000 at the time of writing. This increase occurred alongside a 2.4% year-on-year rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a 0.1% month-on-month decline, marking the first monthly decrease since May 2020, indicating that inflation is cooling.

Year-on-year percentage change in the Consumer Price Index. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in March. The figure for February was 3.2%, also showing signs of deflationary pressure. However, Wintermute states that this trend may soon reverse:

"While progress has been made towards achieving the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, the escalation of global trade tensions has introduced new potential inflation risks that have not yet been reflected in the March data."

Monthly percentage change in the Producer Price Index. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Bitwise analyst Jeff Park recently stated that President Trump's trade policies will create macroeconomic turmoil and short-term financial crises globally, ultimately leading to broader adoption of Bitcoin. He indicated that rising inflation should be expected:

"The costs of tariffs are likely to be shared by the U.S. and its trading partners through higher inflation, but the relative impact will be heavier on foreign countries. These nations will need to find ways to address their weak growth issues."

Wintermute explained that the ongoing trade war exacerbates the risks of rising inflation and economic slowdown. Traders in the prediction market Kalshi recently estimated a 61% probability of the U.S. entering a recession this year, while JPMorgan estimated the probability at 60%.

Related: Bitcoin traders prepare for a surge to $100,000, signs of "decoupling" and "gold leading BTC" trends begin to emerge.

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