Event Review 📊

Yesterday morning, the market experienced a sharp fluctuation in ETH prices. Starting at 01:00, the ETH price quickly rose from around $1594 to approximately $1647 within just 51 minutes, reaching a peak of $1649 at 01:50, with a cumulative increase of 3.37%. This round of market activity not only triggered bullish sentiment but also saw the liquidation of large whale positions and a significant number of short positions being forced out, clearly a result of multiple macroeconomic and technical factors at play. Subsequently, the market experienced a rapid profit-taking retreat, with prices falling back to around $1629, currently in a phase of consolidation.

Timeline Review ⏰

• 01:00: Influenced by the lower-than-expected U.S. March CPI (actual 2.4% vs. expected 2.6%) and rising expectations for interest rate cuts, market liquidity and risk appetite underwent a rapid shift. Liquidations of large whale positions and a significant number of short positions began to emerge, triggering technical indicators and sparking the first wave of ETH's rapid rise.
• 01:14: The key level of $1600 was breached, igniting bullish sentiment in the market and further attracting capital.
• 01:50: Within nearly an hour, the ETH price had increased by 3.37%, demonstrating strong bullish intervention and intense capital competition.
• 02:08: Trading data showed that ETH's market cap percentage dropped to 7.41%, with some capital beginning to lock in profits or adjust positions, indicating a change in the internal structure of the market.
• 02:15: After significant fluctuations, the ETH price fell back to around $1629, with the market entering a short-term consolidation phase.

Reason Analysis 🔍

The sharp fluctuations in this round of ETH trading primarily stem from the following points:

• Sudden Changes in Macroeconomic and Policy Expectations: The lower-than-expected U.S. March CPI data, coupled with an increased probability of interest rate cuts, led to a rapid shift in the liquidity environment and global risk appetite. Additionally, the escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions added uncertainty to the market, prompting capital to rotate aggressively between risk assets and safe-haven assets.
• On-chain and Liquidation Effects: On-chain data reflected the liquidation of large whale positions and a significant number of short positions being forced out, creating substantial trading volatility in the market.
• Technical Indicator Triggers: Multiple technical signals, including pullbacks in EMA moving averages, MACD golden crosses, and KDJ oversold signals, indicated fierce competition between bulls and bears at key support and resistance levels, driving prices up sharply before quickly retreating.

Technical Analysis 📈

Based on the ETH/USDT data from Binance's 45-minute perpetual K-line, we can observe the following technical characteristics:

• Price and Bollinger Bands: The price rebounded from the upper Bollinger Band, releasing sell signals for a period, suggesting that some bulls may choose to take profits.
• Moving Average System: The ETH price is currently above multiple moving averages, including EMA5, 10, 20, 50, and 120, showing an overall strong upward trend. The price found support near MA50, reinforcing mid-term bullish expectations.
• Active Trading Volume: Trading volume increased by 26.04% compared to before, with the 10-day average volume rising by 40.69% and the 20-day average volume increasing by 15.94%, indicating active trading in the short term and significant capital involvement.
• Momentum Indicators: The continuous growth of the MACD histogram and the RSI breaking above the upward trend line both indicate strong buying momentum. However, some TD price reversal signals have also appeared, suggesting potential changes in market trends.
• Liquidations and Capital Flow: In the past hour, the total liquidation amount across the network was approximately $4 million, with a short position ratio as high as 75%, but net inflows from major players reached $10 million, indicating strong capital support for the bullish camp at key levels.

Market Outlook 🌟

In the short term, ETH has retreated to around $1629 after a strong surge, and the market is currently in a consolidation phase. If the price can stabilize near key moving averages like MA50 and receive support from Bollinger Bands and momentum indicators, bulls may push prices up again; conversely, if technical pullback signals develop, short-term fluctuations or corrections may occur.
From a macro perspective, if U.S. interest rate cut expectations become clearer and signs of easing in U.S.-China trade tensions emerge, the crypto market may enter a period of liquidity easing, supporting further price increases; otherwise, the market should remain cautious of global economic uncertainties and structural volatility, and investors are advised to maintain caution and manage positions and risks effectively.

Summary 📝

The sharp fluctuations in this ETH market reflect the interconnected effects of macro data, market sentiment, and technical signals. From the surge starting at 01:00 to the brief consolidation, both the capital effects brought by macro policies and the continuously strengthening moving averages and momentum indicators reveal the ebb and flow of bullish and bearish forces in the market. For investors, understanding and grasping the key nodes behind this wave of trading will help make more rational decisions in future volatile markets.

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