In March, the CPI surprisingly recorded a negative value of -0.1. Under normal circumstances, this would be an excellent figure, but in the context of a trade war, it’s hard to say, as the prices in March had not yet been significantly affected by tariffs.

From a composition perspective, oil prices contributed the most to the decline. Without the drop in oil prices, the overall monthly CPI would have been around 0.05.

The growth in overall services excluding energy is also quite limited, with a monthly rate of only 0.1. However, the core contributor here is transportation services, which are heavily influenced by oil prices. If we exclude transportation services, the monthly rate for all other services is around 0.3.

Today, the price of BTC first fell and then rose, likely influenced not only by the CPI but also by the trade war. In short, we are currently in a tariff-dominated period, and before a reconciliation between China and the U.S., the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates is low. Conversely, the trade war will likely lead to rising prices, which could trigger a potential recession.

One last point is the risk of war, especially in the Middle East. Trump is now planning to negotiate with Iran, but there’s no guarantee that talks will succeed. Normally, one wouldn’t say this is the time to strike Iran, but it’s hard to predict Trump’s actions, and this could be one of the scenarios… If a conflict with Iran breaks out, oil prices will inevitably soar, and both China and the U.S. will suffer, while Russia will benefit. This may be a low-probability but extremely high-risk black swan event.

So, let’s just say, "mouse tail juice" 😂

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。