After some operations by Chuanbao, Bitcoin is already in a clear downward channel. Ethereum is even worse, basically close to the lowest point of the last bear market.

Bitcoin is relatively stronger, partly benefiting from gold, which is the only asset that has seen an increase this year.

Just wait quietly; this is not the bottom. At least some obvious black swan events, including war risks, have not been priced in by the market. The Federal Reserve is also constrained by tariff policies, making it difficult to ease. Or rather, I have always suspected that we are following the 1930 script, with depression, which was also characterized by monetary tightening and tariffs.

Looking back at World War II, the trajectory of the United States is very clear: creating a depression to push the right wing, then promoting war by selling arms to both sides, and finally establishing a global empire through the right wing.

What about this time? It feels very difficult. The U.S. blew up an ammunition depot in Yemen and now has to transfer arms from the Pacific. Without a manufacturing industry, how can the U.S. sell arms?

However, you need a manufacturing industry; relying solely on tariffs is useless. The per capita GDP is inflated too high and is not suitable for low-skilled labor, unless the dollar depreciates by more than 50%, creating a batch of domestic poor people.

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