Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
The U.S. tariff policy has welcomed a new turn. This morning, Trump announced that considering the active negotiations on trade, currency, and tariffs with over 75 countries, he decided to implement a 90-day "suspension period" for tariffs on these countries, during which tariffs will be significantly reduced to 10%, but a 125% tariff will be immediately imposed on China. Under such a shift in tariff policy, both the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market surged.
According to real-time data from OKX, as of 8:00 today (all times referenced are from this point), BTC peaked above $83,500, currently reported at $82,600, with a 24-hour increase of 8.23%;
Besides BTC, ETH peaked above $1,680, currently reported at $1,670, with a 24-hour increase of 13.27%; SOL briefly broke through the $120 mark, currently reported at $119, with a 24-hour increase of 12.60%;
Other mainstream altcoins also saw significant increases. Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, HYPE broke through $14, with a 24-hour increase of 25.9%, currently reported at $14.01; S broke through $0.5, with a 24-hour increase of 24.9%, currently reported at $0.5002; PEPE broke through $0.000007, with a 24-hour increase of 17.5%, currently reported at $0.00000702;
In the U.S. stock market, as of the close of the day, all three major indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 7.87%, marking the largest single-day increase since March 24, 2020. The S&P 500 index rose 9.52%, the largest single-day increase since October 28, 2008. The Nasdaq rose 12.16%, the largest single-day increase since January 3, 2001, and the second-largest increase in history. The Russell 2000 index rose 8.66%, the largest single-day increase since March 24, 2020;
Influenced by the overall market uptrend, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies also surged. According to CoinGecko, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has now surpassed $2.7 trillion, with a 24-hour increase of 6.2%;
In terms of derivatives trading, Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations of $589 million, including $214 million in long liquidations and $375 million in short liquidations. In terms of cryptocurrencies, BTC saw liquidations of $235 million, and ETH saw liquidations of $167 million.
Tariff suspension is just a brief respite, market sentiment remains cautious
After Trump announced the latest tariff policy, many traditional financial analysts also expressed their attitudes and related views. Currently, despite a rebound in the market in the short term, most analysts and observers generally point out that this "suspended" tariff policy has not truly eliminated uncertainty, but may instead bring more chaos, and could even be seen as a political expedient rather than a rational economic decision. Here are some representative viewpoints:
U.S. Senate Minority Leader: The U.S. government is chaotic like a child's play, the cabinet is unable to govern
U.S. Senate Minority Leader Schumer stated, "The government under Trump is chaotic; he changes every day, and his advisors argue with each other. We cannot accept such a chaotic cabinet to govern a country. Trump seems to be playing a game of red light, green light. Sometimes he puts the U.S. economy on a red light, and sometimes he turns it green. I have never seen such chaotic government actions."
Chief Analyst at Oxford Economics New York: "Suspension" or "reduction," Trump's wording is vague
John Canavan, Chief Analyst at Oxford Economics New York, stated, "From President Trump's wording, we are not entirely clear whether it is a true suspension of tariffs or just a reduction of reciprocal tariffs to 10%. But in any case, it is clear that Trump has abandoned some of the worst tariff threats, which I believe is obviously a sustainable net positive for risk assets. One thing it has not done is eliminate uncertainty, which arises because tariff levels seem to change daily."
Chief Market Strategist at INTERACTIVE BROKERS: Doubts whether U.S. tariffs will resume in 90 days, uncertainty reduced but not eliminated
Steve Sosnick, Chief Market Strategist at INTERACTIVE BROKERS, stated, "Trump's suspension of tariffs is definitely unexpected, considering the U.S. government has consistently stated they would not cancel tariffs and that tariffs are non-negotiable. This is a very understandable relief rebound. We now have to question whether tariffs will resume in 90 days. This will hinder businesses from planning for the near future and providing guidance for the current quarter. Uncertainty has decreased, but it has not completely disappeared."
Executive Director at FX: Trump's 90-day tariff suspension will only bring more uncertainty
Regarding Trump's announcement of a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs, Amarjit Sahota, Executive Director at FX, stated, "Currently, the market is experiencing huge volatility, especially the stock market, which reacted positively to this news. But the ensuing question is: why are we seeing this 'suspension' today, is this really a good idea? Personally, I don't think it's a good idea: a 90-day suspension will only bring more uncertainty for those 90 days. This looks like a very poor policy decision, or at least poorly planned or executed."
Chief Market Strategist at Philadelphia National Investment Management Group: Nasdaq's 8% rise in 20 minutes is no healthier than an 8% drop
Mark Hackett, Chief Market Strategist at Philadelphia National Investment Management Group, stated, "Trump's suspension of tariffs is definitely good news because it indicates that negotiations are in a good enough state that they believe they have completed what they needed to accomplish through initial dialogue. But I want to raise a very important warning, as the Nasdaq's 8% rise in 20 minutes is no healthier than an 8% drop, so I am being very cautious right now."
How will the cryptocurrency market move forward?
Arthur Hayes: The RMB exchange rate may become key, whether China retaliates remains uncertain
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated, "This is not the policy response I expected, but in any case, it is still a response. The question remains: will China retaliate?" He also pointed out that investors should pay attention to how the People's Bank of China adjusts the RMB exchange rate this Thursday to gauge the next steps.
Ali Martinez: If BTC holds above $80,700, it may rise to $84,000 to $87,000
Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez stated, "BTC is breaking out of the consolidation range, and if the support level of $80,700 can hold, BTC is expected to rise, targeting $84,000, or even $87,000."
Santiment: The market reacted strongly to tariff news, still a temporary relief of ongoing issues
Analysts at blockchain analysis platform Santiment stated that although the latest "tariff suspension" policy is a positive message that temporarily alleviates some market tension, it remains a temporary relief of ongoing issues. Just 48 hours ago, the market experienced a "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction due to misinformation about tariff suspensions, followed closely by the U.S. announcing a tariff increase of up to 104% on Chinese goods, which undoubtedly exacerbated market disappointment.
Analysts pointed out that the current fundamentals remain unclear and unreliable, with the market relying more on public greed and fear as contrarian indicators. In these unprecedented times, the market's overreaction to tariff news has become a signal worth closely monitoring.
Grayscale Research: Tariffs cause stagflation shock, potentially beneficial for Bitcoin
Zach Pandl, head of Grayscale Research, stated, "Tariffs have brought stagflation shock. Stagflation is usually unfavorable for traditional asset returns, but it is beneficial for scarce commodities like gold (and possibly Bitcoin)."
Currently, despite some positive news in the short term that has alleviated some market sentiment, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs continues to exert pressure on the market.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
