Let me say it again to avoid some friends misunderstanding. The previous expectations for interest rate cuts in May or June were mainly because the market believed that tariffs would lead to a recession in the U.S. economy, and once a recession occurs, it would force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, for the Federal Reserve, a recession is not necessarily going to happen, so they still insist that they will not choose to cut rates in June until they see inflation decrease.

Thus, the only possibility for the Federal Reserve to cut rates early would be due to an economic (expected) recession, and this kind of rate cut does not mean it is a friendly conclusion for risk markets. In other words, if the rate cut in June is due to expectations of an economic recession, then even if rates are cut, it may not be beneficial for risk markets because the market has already anticipated a recession.

On the other hand, if there is no expectation of an economic recession, such as if the GDP in the first quarter is not negative, then the Federal Reserve is likely not to choose to cut rates in June or even earlier, because inflation has not truly manifested.

PS: People often say I talk too much. I have indeed considered using more concise language to explain, but the result is that many friends only see the latter part and not the former, thinking, "You are a big fool, CME predicts that the Federal Reserve will definitely cut rates in May and June, yet you say they won't cut rates." They completely ignore that the reason for the market prediction is the concern that high tariffs will trigger an economic recession.

If this is not explained clearly, it will only lead to, "What did I say? You are a big fool," or "Repetitive talk, you are right inside and out," without considering that a rate cut under an economic recession will not drive up risk markets, and not all rate cuts are positive.

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