The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes basically confirmed the current stance of the Federal Reserve on monetary policy: as long as inflation remains high, there will be no interest rate cuts. It is also believed that tariffs will be one of the reasons for rising inflation. Unless there is a deterioration in the labor market or a weakening of economic activity (recession expectations), the Federal Reserve has no intention of cutting rates.

The suspension of tariffs for three months, postponed to July 10, also creates significant uncertainty for the future. Whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates before the implementation of reciprocal tariffs will be a test for the market.

From my personal perspective, a 10% tariff, although significantly lower than the expectation of April 2, is still four times higher than the average tariff of 2.5% in 2024. The resulting impact on inflation and the economy may still be unfavorable. Additionally, the 125% tariff on China will lead to price increases for some daily goods in the U.S., and these effects will not be seen until at least June.

Therefore, I still believe that any triggering of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, or even before the fourth quarter, is only likely due to an economic (expected) recession, and such a rate cut does not necessarily indicate a friendly stance towards risk markets.

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