Source: Cointelegraph Original: "{title}"
The 2024 U.S. presidential election will have an unprecedented impact on the cryptocurrency industry.
While many investors are concerned that Vice President Kamala Harris's victory could suppress the market, others believe her administration could bring positive changes to the industry.
Due to Harris's connection with the current administration of President Joe Biden—whose government is generally viewed as anti-cryptocurrency—analysts at private wealth management firm Bernstein predict that a Harris victory could lead to a significant drop in Bitcoin (BTC) prices by the end of the year.
However, pseudonymous cryptocurrency trader Crypto Rand believes that a Harris victory will not signal the end of the bull market.
The trader told Cointelegraph that regardless of who ultimately takes office, the Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoin markets will enter a bull market in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025.
He predicted, "If Harris is elected, there will be bumps along the way, but the trend will continue." He expects BTC prices to temporarily drop by 5%-10%, viewing it as a short-term disruption rather than a trend reversal.
Youwei Yang, chief economist at Bit Mining, believes that cryptocurrency investors should focus on the liquidity of money in the global economy.
Yang told Cointelegraph, "The looser the monetary policy, the more likely 'hot money' will flow into risk assets like cryptocurrencies." He believes that a Harris victory could enhance this liquidity.
The correlation between Bitcoin prices and global liquidity. Source: Lyn Alden
Yang believes that if the Federal Reserve adopts a more accommodative stance under a Harris administration, it could offset regulatory challenges and support cryptocurrency prices, resulting in only minor differences in the final outcome.
Yang predicts that under a Harris administration, BTC prices could reach $120,000, while under a potential second term for Donald Trump, BTC prices might be slightly higher, predicted at $135,000.
Observers generally agree that a Harris victory will not necessarily spell disaster for the current cryptocurrency bull market trend, but some investors are concerned it could pose significant challenges for the U.S. cryptocurrency industry.
Venture capitalist Tim Draper told Cointelegraph that the election is crucial, and regardless of who wins, there must be no regulatory imposition on this "industry that could determine the global economy for the next thirty years."
Bitcoin millionaire and cryptocurrency entrepreneur Erik Finman told Cointelegraph that the Biden administration's executive order on digital assets is "very bad for cryptocurrency." He worries that Harris may continue Biden's anti-crypto stance.
Draper stated that other countries are beginning to innovate, and businesses will move to places where regulation is clearer:
Harris only avoided directly mentioning cryptocurrencies late in her campaign. On September 22, she stated that her government would encourage investment in artificial intelligence and digital assets as part of maintaining the competitiveness of U.S. businesses.
Although Harris seems to have good intentions, Basel Ismail, CEO of cryptocurrency investment and analysis platform Blockcircle, told Cointelegraph that she could have "seized the opportunity to leverage this by sharing a detailed roadmap."
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Crypto Rand believes that Harris's "ambiguity sows the seeds of uncertainty," and this "uncertainty may be worse than opposition because companies do not know what will happen next, and they will slowly bleed."
The "enforcement regulation" approach of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission under the Biden administration has led many in the crypto industry to reassess whether they should leave the U.S.
Crypto Rand stated, "Four years is like 20 crypto years," so a Harris election victory could trigger a migration to more crypto-friendly countries.
Rashan Colbert, policy director at the U.S. decentralized exchange dYdX, told Cointelegraph that other countries are developing faster than the U.S., and if they want to encourage the U.S. cryptocurrency industry to remain competitive, "any incoming government should not want this trend to continue."
The "2024 Henley Cryptocurrency Adoption Index," compiled by investment migration consultancy Henley & Partners, ranks the cryptocurrency adoption status of different countries, placing the U.S. behind the UAE, Hong Kong, and Singapore.
Top 10 countries in the 2024 Henley Cryptocurrency Adoption Index. Source: Henley & Partners
Crypto Rand noted that market observers generally believe that current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has been "the biggest burden on the U.S. crypto industry."
Colbert said, "The change in leadership at the securities regulator will mark the end of an era of blatant overreach and harmful enforcement regulation."
While Trump promised to fire Gensler on his "first day" in office—which is legally impossible—Harris has not indicated any official position regarding Gensler's future as SEC chairman. However, some close to Harris's team have suggested that his position is far from secure.
According to billionaire investor Mark Cuban, Harris's team opposes the SEC's current "enforcement regulation" strategy. He told Cointelegraph:
Cuban said that Harris "believes that clear regulations are a positive approach and opposes regulation through litigation." He thinks her administration could clarify regulations so that "companies do not have to move overseas to develop applications."
A new chairman could potentially provide the cryptocurrency industry with a proper set of guidelines. Draper went further, calling for an update to U.S. securities laws. He stated that using the 80-year-old Howey Test to regulate a "dynamic, evolving environment is shortsighted."
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However, most large cryptocurrency companies have not left the U.S. Despite the less friendly attitude of regulators in recent years, the U.S. market may simply be too lucrative to abandon.
According to data from the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. has the largest GDP in the world at $29.17 trillion, followed by China at $18.27 trillion.
The SEC is currently reviewing multiple cases against large cryptocurrency companies for unregistered securities. The upcoming election could not only bring a new president but also a new leadership at the SEC, potentially changing the commission's attitude toward the cryptocurrency industry.
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