The new tariff policy is implemented, how will the market move? From Wall Street to the anxiety of ordinary people.

CN
18 hours ago

The global financial market is experiencing a storm triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's massive tariff policy. This market turmoil caused by tariffs has not only thrown Wall Street into panic but has also heightened global investors' concerns about the economic outlook.

Trump's Tariff "Nuclear Bomb" Drops, Market Caught Off Guard

The spark for this storm began on April 2 when Trump announced a comprehensive tariff policy. According to Bloomberg, Trump signed an executive order to impose at least a 10% tariff on all goods imported into the U.S., with higher rates for certain countries deemed to be "severe violators" of trade, including tariffs as high as 54% on Chinese goods. This move is seen as part of Trump's fulfillment of his campaign promises, aimed at reshaping global trade rules to reverse the long-standing trade deficit the U.S. has with other countries. He stated on the social platform Truth Social: "The U.S. has a huge fiscal deficit with countries like China and the EU, and tariffs are the only solution. One day, people will realize that tariffs are a very good thing for the U.S." Trump also pointed out that the tariff policy has brought hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue to the U.S. and promised to "quickly reverse" the expanding trade surplus during Biden's term.

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However, this hardline stance quickly triggered a severe market reaction. On April 3, the three major U.S. stock indices experienced the worst single-day sell-off since 2020, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting nearly 1,700 points, a drop of 3.98%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also recorded their worst performances in years. Investors are worried that a full-blown trade war could lead the global economy into recession, with risks of supply chain disruptions, rising corporate costs, and increasing consumer prices. European and Asian markets were similarly affected, with the Japanese and Taiwanese stock markets triggering circuit breakers today, as panic spread globally.

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After holding strong for a few days, Bitcoin's price also began to decline early Monday morning.

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Gold Breaks Key Level, Why Are Safe-Haven Assets Failing?

Surprisingly, gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, did not continue its upward trend during this turmoil but instead retreated from its highs. Previously, driven by a surge in central bank gold purchases and global economic uncertainty, spot gold had reached a historic high of $3,004.82 per ounce in March. However, after the announcement of the tariff policy, gold prices quickly fell back after a brief rise, dropping below the $3,000 mark to a low of $2,969. Market analysts pointed out that this phenomenon may be related to the strengthening of the dollar and investors liquidating assets for cash. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, analyzed on the X platform that Trump's tariff policy could raise inflation expectations, increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy, which would further suppress gold.

Meanwhile, other commodities also suffered. Copper and oil prices plummeted today, reflecting the market's pessimistic expectations for global demand. Safe-haven sentiment pushed the yen higher, while the continued decline in the stock market caused the "Fear and Greed Index" to drop to 23, entering the "extreme fear" zone. Investors seem to be voting with their feet, expressing deep concerns about the uncertainties of Trump's policies.

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Wall Street Executives Seek Help from Bessent, Treasury Secretary Becomes Key Figure

In the face of a market crash, Wall Street's financial moguls are restless. According to Bloomberg, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently received urgent requests for help from several hedge fund managers and bank executives. These industry insiders hope Bessent can explain to Trump the potentially destructive economic impact of excessive tariffs to prevent the market from spiraling further out of control. As the former Chief Investment Officer of Soros Fund Management, Bessent has deep connections and prestige in the financial world and is seen as a potential bridge between Wall Street and the White House.

Bessent's attitude towards the tariff policy is closely watched. He has publicly stated that about 50% of Americans do not own stocks but are in debt, and current economic policies should prioritize supporting "Main Street" (ordinary people) rather than "Wall Street" (financial elites). This stance aligns closely with the profile of Trump's supporters—Arthur Hayes pointed out that Trump's firm tariff policy is largely rooted in the fact that his core support group consists mainly of low- to middle-income individuals who do not hold financial assets and are more concerned about job opportunities than stock market fluctuations. However, Wall Street clearly disagrees. An anonymous hedge fund manager told the media: "If tariffs lead to layoffs and reduced consumer spending, 'Main Street' may not be able to laugh in the end."

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Diverging Market Opinions: Short-Term Pain or Long-Term Disaster?

Market participants have differing opinions on the economic consequences of Trump's tariff policy. Supporters believe that tariffs may raise prices in the short term but can stimulate the return of U.S. manufacturing and create jobs in the long run. An investor posted on the X platform: "I fully support Trump! Tariffs are a key step to making America great again." Trump also emphasized on Truth Social that the revenue generated from tariffs will be used for infrastructure construction and tax reduction plans, benefiting ordinary people.

However, opposing voices are also strong. Analysts warn that tariffs could trigger a domino effect: companies may lay off workers due to rising costs, consumers may cut back on spending due to rising prices, ultimately dragging down economic growth. Some even point out that if trade partners like China and the EU implement retaliatory tariffs, the global trading system could face a complete collapse. According to The New York Times, China announced on April 6 that it would impose a 34% tariff on U.S. goods as a direct counterattack against Trump's policy. The EU has also stated it will take "reciprocal measures," with the shadow of a trade war growing ever darker.

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What Does the Future Hold? Caution and Wait-and-See Coexist

Currently, market uncertainty has reached its peak. Although the decline in U.S. stock futures has narrowed, they have not escaped downward pressure. The S&P 500 futures briefly fell over 5% in early trading, now down to less than 3%; the Nasdaq 100 futures previously dropped by 6.2%, now falling back to around 4%. The next move for gold prices is equally uncertain—whether to continue to decline or rebound will depend on the Federal Reserve's latest statements on inflation and economic data.

For ordinary investors, this is undoubtedly a challenging time. Some joked on the X platform: "Trump says the market sometimes needs 'medicine,' but this medicine is too bitter!" On the other hand, Trump's advisors calmly stated: "Unless you sell your stocks, you haven't lost money." While this statement carries a hint of jest, it also reveals the current market's dilemma: should one cut losses and exit, or grit their teeth and hold on?

Regardless, Trump's tariff policy has pushed the global economy into uncharted territory. Whether Wall Street's pleas can sway Bessent and whether the White House will adjust its policy direction remains an unresolved mystery. What is certain is that the market turmoil triggered by tariffs is far from over, and its far-reaching effects will gradually emerge in the coming months or even years.

"Now is the time for cautious assessment—not just of stock prices, but of the entire economic direction."

This article represents the author's personal views and does not reflect the stance or views of this platform. This article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.

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