The homework for the last working day of this week has increased in difficulty. Today's non-farm data is still good and did not trigger too much panic in the market, but China's countermeasures fired the first shot in the decline of U.S. stocks. Then, Powell's speech cooled the market's sentiment from the heart to the soles of the feet. Powell's speech has been interpreted, so I won't elaborate too much. The general idea is that tariffs will lead to significant uncertainty.
Inflation is likely to rise due to tariffs, and the Federal Reserve believes that the path to seeing inflation return to 2% has become more difficult. The growth of the U.S. economy is slowing down. Although the Federal Reserve does not see a recession in the U.S. economy, it acknowledges that the economy has begun to decline and admits that analysts have started to expect a recession. More importantly, Powell repeatedly emphasized that there is no additional path for rate cuts and confirmed that the Federal Reserve will stick to its plan of cutting rates twice in 2025.
Even though Trump has changed his attitude from January and March and started to call for Powell to cut rates, Powell still insists that he will not cut rates without seeing a path for inflation to decline. He also clearly stated that the Federal Reserve is not responsible for the risk markets.
In simple terms, the risks to the economy are predicted, but the risks are all caused by Trump's arbitrary tariffs. The Federal Reserve has three "no's": it is not responsible for the risk markets, it does not take the blame for inflation, and it does not deny the economic downturn, with no additional rate cuts.
The conclusion from the risk markets is to continue to decline. The drop even exceeded yesterday's, refreshing the largest single-day drop in the last four years. Even the VIX briefly broke through 45.5, which theoretically is a good bottom-fishing point, but the buying sentiment in the market still feels very sluggish.
Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the stability of BTC prices is significantly higher than that of U.S. stocks. If yesterday's price movements through CME still showed that $BTC and U.S. stocks were declining in sync, today the CME's BTC futures price actually rose by 2.5%. Although the specific reason is unknown, the information that BTC is more resilient than U.S. stocks has been conveyed.
After looking at a lot of data, I really couldn't find the reason for BTC's stability, but it boils down to three points. First, there is ample capital for buying. After all, at 6 PM today, BTC was about to fall below $81,000, but it was quickly pulled back. Secondly, there may be unknown positive factors, which cannot be verified, but BTC has not undergone any fundamental changes. The ability to attract large capital for buying cannot rule out conspiracy theories. The third point is that investors generally believe this price is the bottom for BTC, but I think that is not easy.
After all, from the data perspective, although today's turnover has decreased compared to yesterday, it is still a relatively high turnover figure, especially since short-term investors provided a large amount of turnover. Therefore, there must be a lot of capital buying. Who is buying and for what reason is still uncertain.
However, it is already clear that a bottom is gradually forming around $83,000.
This post is sponsored by @ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With ApeX
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
