Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
The butterfly effect of tariff policy has stirred a hurricane in the crypto market. At 4 AM this morning, U.S. President Trump officially announced a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" on the vast majority of imported goods globally from the White House, and implemented higher retaliatory tariffs on dozens of countries and regions, leading to another severe blow to the cryptocurrency market (For detailed tariff information, refer to: White House launches Tariff War 2.0).
According to OKX market data, around 4:15 AM, BTC first "lured" to reach $88,500 before continuing to decline, and around 8 AM, it briefly fell below $82,500 (with a minimum drop to $82,169), a short-term drop of over 5%. As of around 11:30 AM (same below), it is reported at $83,600;
Besides BTC, ETH briefly dropped from around $1,960 to below $1,800, currently reported at $1,824, with a 24-hour drop of 3.03%; SOL fell from around $136 to below the $117 mark, currently reported at $119, with a 24-hour drop of 4.04%;
In the U.S. stock market, the three major stock index futures plummeted after hours, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures plunging 1,007 points (a drop of 2.3%), S&P 500 futures down 3.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures crashing 4.2%;
Affected by the overall market downturn, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has also rapidly declined. According to CoinGecko data, the current total market value of cryptocurrencies has fallen below $2.8 trillion, down 4% in 24 hours, currently reported at $278 billion. Additionally, Alternative data shows that today's Fear and Greed Index has dropped from 44 to 25, entering an "extreme fear" state again.
Fear and Greed Index
In terms of derivatives trading, Coinglass data shows that in the past 12 hours, the entire network has liquidated $396 million. In terms of cryptocurrencies, BTC accounted for $151 million in liquidations, and ETH accounted for $75.25 million.
BTC price has barely rebounded for two days, will it continue to decline due to the impact of U.S. tariff policy? Is there still a "day of resurgence" for altcoins? Below, Odaily Planet Daily summarizes the views of industry leaders/institutions regarding this morning's tariff policy.
What do various leaders/institutions think?
Arthur Hayes: If BTC can hold above $76,500 until the tax day on April 15, it will be "out of danger"
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that the market's reaction to "Liberation Day" has been poor, "If Bitcoin can hold above $76,500 between now and the U.S. tax day (April 15), then we can consider ourselves out of danger." He also reminded investors "not to be cut by the volatile market."
Analyst Ali Martinez: BTC is currently in a key range between $84,800 and $86,900
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez stated that after the tariff policy was announced, BTC is currently in a key range between $84,800 and $86,900, and the hourly chart shows that whichever side breaks through or falls below first could determine the next big move.
Chris Burniske: No aggressive actions for now, will focus on specific assets and consider adding positions if the market further declines today
Placeholder partner Chris Burniske stated that today is expected to be a positive turning point, and no aggressive actions will be taken for now. If the market maintains the current range, he will continue to hold; if the tariff policy leads to further declines in the crypto industry today, he will focus on specific assets and consider adding positions.
Santiment: The crypto market's reaction to the tariff policy is tepid, with safe-haven funds still flowing into gold
Analysts from blockchain analysis platform Santiment stated that after Trump announced the new tariff policy at the White House, market sentiment quickly heated up, but the performance of the crypto market has been relatively tepid. Currently, investors' safe-haven funds are mainly flowing into gold, which has risen 20% in the past three months, breaking through $3,190 per ounce, while Bitcoin remains highly correlated with the S&P 500 index.
On social media, market opinions are divided: some analysts believe that this situation is similar to the market turbulence caused by the trade war in 2018, which may be beneficial for the crypto market in the long run; however, others point out that the U.S. economic structure may not withstand high tariffs, and the market may face greater volatility. In the short term, the sentiment in the crypto market is cautious, and the real market reaction will further manifest after the U.S. stock market opens.
Grayscale Research: The impact of tariffs on cryptocurrencies may have already been "priced in," and the worst may be over
Zach Pandl, head of Grayscale Research, stated, "The impact of tariffs on cryptocurrencies may have already been 'priced in,' and the worst may be over. I believe tariffs will weaken the dollar's dominance and create space for competitors, including Bitcoin. Prices may decline in the short term. However, the first few months of the Trump administration have further strengthened my long-term confidence in Bitcoin as a global monetary asset."
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