As time goes by, you may learn to minimize losses, but you will still lose.

Author: hitesh.eth

Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow

When I truly understood the potential of Bitcoin in early 2017, it felt like discovering fire in the digital age. This was not just another asset—it was a paradigm shift, a technology capable of redefining the very nature of money.

A decentralized system, free from the influence of governments and central banks, offering financial sovereignty to those who choose to participate. This was not just an investment; it was a revolution. And I wanted everyone around me to see what I saw.

I prepared a long message and sent it to 100 WhatsApp contacts, suggesting that everyone buy Bitcoin and sharing a consulting service that could help them increase their Bitcoin holdings. At the time, I had achieved some early success in alternative investments, so I thought it wouldn't be difficult to double everyone's Bitcoin holdings within a few months. However, my understanding of the market was still in its infancy, and I did not fully realize how narratives and emotions could influence price movements in a still very young market.

I formed a perception of the market based on the limited data available at the time. Most altcoins launched between 2015 and 2017 did not have a long trading history. Their price charts looked like an endless upward trend, with occasional small pullbacks seeming like just brief pauses before the next rise.

This pattern was intoxicating—buy, hold, wait, and watch your portfolio grow. The idea that the cryptocurrency market was "destined" to keep rising took root in my mind. At that time, volatility did not scare me; I thought it was just part of the process.

In theory, I believed I could easily ride out those pullback periods, but the first major pullback in the second quarter of 2017 shattered that illusion. The market did not just pull back—it crashed. Most mainstream coins from the first quarter fell to new lows, with declines of 70%-80%. The floor beneath me seemed to vanish.

Watching your portfolio shrink day by day, excitement turned into panic, and optimism turned into doubt. However, I held on, believing this was just a phase before the next inevitable rise. But in the end, not only did I fail to double my Bitcoin holdings, but I also reduced them by 70%-80%, back to square one.

Uncertainty began to pile up. Bitcoin soared from $10,000 to $20,000, while altcoins struggled to recover. The sentiment around Bitcoin was extremely chaotic—one day it was hailed as the future of currency, and the next day, news of its "death" flooded the media. China's bans, regulatory crackdowns, hacking attacks—every piece of negative news sent shockwaves through the market. My initial conviction began to waver. Were we really on the brink of a financial revolution, or was this just a speculative bubble destined to burst?

Then came January 2018, a month that completely changed my view of the market. Altcoins did not just recover—they exploded. TRX achieved a 100-fold increase in just a few weeks. Countless projects that had been deemed hopeless made a strong comeback, with some rising tenfold or more. It was pure euphoria. Everyone felt like a genius.

The anxiety of the past few months dissipated in a single green candle. Just like that, a new perception formed in my mind—perhaps this is how the market behaves. Even after experiencing devastating pullbacks, it always returns stronger.

It was this belief that created a layer of self-deception. We all convinced ourselves that this was the new normal. Every drop was just a prelude to the next crazy rise. We waited for that green month to return, believing that patience would eventually pay off. But it never came. The market continued to bleed, and what was once an exciting game turned into a slow and painful awakening: we were trapped by our own expectations. The cycle had played its trick on us.

Every cycle brings moments of extreme euphoria, and we saw the same phenomenon in the last cycle within the NFT space. Certain NFT collections rapidly achieved 100-fold increases over three separate month-long periods. It felt like a replay of 2018. Hype, believing this was just the beginning, fear of missing out (FOMO)—everything played out in the same way. After experiencing two pullbacks, we thought, "Perhaps this is just how the market operates," and we continued to hold (HODL). As a result, once again, we lost everything. I suffered significant losses in NFTs, just like before.

People often say that learning from past mistakes makes you smarter, but the market always finds a way to make you forget. Your brain deceives you into believing this time will be different. "I understand the rules now. I won't make the same mistakes again." But the deception is always there. That illusion of having control, of having cracked the market's code, keeps you in the game longer than you should.

And in the end, the market always wins. As time goes by, you may learn to minimize losses, but you will still lose.

We saw this scene once again. This time, it was the agents' turn to take the stage. Public offerings rapidly achieved 100-fold increases, and ICOs suddenly made a comeback. Everything was playing out again, just with a different packaging. We believed once more that this cycle might extend for a few weeks or months.

At that moment, we repeated the same mistakes, fully aware of what we were doing but unable to stop. You can hardly control your emotions.

Perhaps at this moment, you are thinking emotionally—it's all over, and now only a few coins will continue to rise. But the market always acts contrary to expectations; it will play the same cards again. You may be forced to choose between staying in the market or completely exiting, and that may be the only outcome for most retail investors.

The only way to help you win in this game is to maximize your gains while staying in the market and minimize missed gains when exiting the market. And while this is easy to say, it is difficult to do.

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