According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Trump signed two executive orders regarding the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" at the White House, announcing a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" on trade partners and imposing higher tariffs on certain trade partners.
Due to the policy's strength exceeding expectations, U.S. stocks plummeted 2.2% after hours on Wednesday, with technology stocks hit harder, as Apple fell by as much as 6.1%.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives stated:
“Trump just concluded his tariff speech at the White House, and we believe this tariff plan is ‘worse than the worst-case scenario that the market feared.’”
Jefferies' head of foreign exchange, Brad Bechtel, also commented:
“This is definitely much more aggressive than people expected. It’s a greater doom loop for the rest of the world.”
Market volatility may continue, focus on subsequent corporate earnings expectations
Most Wall Street professionals maintain a neutral stance, believing that the impact of the "reciprocal tariffs" will take some time to manifest, and market volatility may continue.
Bloomberg strategist Michael Ball stated:
“The initial level of reciprocal tariffs is higher than expected, which will keep uncertainty and volatility at elevated levels for some time. There are still many things to be determined, but the initial reaction to Trump's tariff announcement suggests that a more stagflationary outlook is likely to emerge in the future.”
Barclays' head of U.S. equity strategy, Venu Krishna, noted that this announcement means volatility will continue, regardless. Issues such as retaliation from trade partners, rising inflation, shrinking consumer spending, and declining industrial production remain unresolved after the tariffs.
Max Gokhman, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, remarked:
“The biggest question is whether countries can easily dodge the severe impact of reciprocal tariffs as they have in the past. If not, a real trade war could sweep the globe, making stagflation seem possible, leaving only wounded losers behind.”
“However, given that this remains a significant unknown, we will not change our stance for now, maintaining neutrality across regions and sectors.”
Some opinions are more pessimistic, believing that tariff policies are detrimental to the economy, putting greater downward pressure on U.S. stocks.
Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, stated:
“I think we may soon see a reassessment of the probability of a recession. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we see those probabilities rise.”
“At the very least, we will see further downward pressure on corporate profitability expectations for 2025. From now on, the path of least resistance for profits is a significant decline.”
Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, bluntly stated that U.S. stocks “clearly have more room to fall in the future,” betting that U.S. stocks could ultimately drop another 10%.
Adam Hetts, Global Head of Multi-Asset at Janus Henderson Investors, believes that “reciprocal tariffs” leave room for negotiation, but also lay the groundwork for more pain and uncertainty.
“Implementing staggering tariffs by country is clearly a ‘negotiation strategy,’ which will keep the market in a state of tension for the foreseeable future.”
“We have already seen the government’s tolerance for market volatility is remarkably high, and the big question now is how high its tolerance for real economic pain is as negotiations unfold.”
Columbia Threadneedle's interest rate strategist stated:
“Ultimately, this is a tax policy—who will pay this tax is still uncertain—but I think you cannot view it as a growth positive in any case. In the short term, it is detrimental to growth and beneficial to inflation.”
Matt Maley, Chief Market Strategist at Miller Tabak+Co., stated:
“There hasn’t been the last-minute relief that some investors were hoping for recently. Therefore, the Trump administration seems unconcerned about the short-term impact of these tariff policies on the market.”
“This means that earnings expectations will be closely watched in the coming weeks. If earnings expectations continue to decline, the stock market will face greater resistance.”
There is still room for negotiation, which may create buying opportunities
Some Wall Street professionals remain cautiously optimistic.
Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer at Northlight Asset Management, stated:
“If there is a glimmer of hope (which remains to be seen), it is that these tariff rates are just the beginning of negotiations, ultimately leading to a comprehensive reduction in tariff rates.”
Steve Chiavarone, head of multi-asset at Federated Hermes, also believes:
“If what was announced today is the most severe level of tariffs—and the subsequent news flow is about how countries negotiate to lower tariffs—this could be beneficial for the market. This could create enough selling over the next day or so to create buying opportunities.”
Jason Browne, President of Alexis Investment Partners, stated that if the market can stabilize and rebound above the 5750 level on Thursday, it would support the view that “the worst phase of the correction is over.” He believes that Wednesday's sell-off signifies the “peak stage of uncertainty.”
Barclays' Krishna remains positive on large tech stocks, believing that the price-to-earnings ratios of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia have dropped 25% from recent peaks of 32 times to about 24 times, making the sector an ideal safe haven.
Arnim Holzer, Global Macro Strategist at Easterly EAB Risk Solutions, stated:
“We are wary of completely avoiding risk or turning to cash strategies, as this would limit future growth participation.”
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