On April 2, 2025, local time in the United States, President Donald Trump announced new "reciprocal" tariffs on imported goods from dozens of countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 49%, aimed at correcting the long-standing trade imbalance unfavorable to the United States. This move triggered significant volatility in global financial markets, with the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin, being notably affected.
As of the morning of April 3, 2025, the price of Bitcoin was approximately $83,400, down about 1.85% from the previous trading day. Following Trump's announcement of the tariff policy, the price of Bitcoin quickly fell from nearly $88,000 to around $83,000.
Below is the Bitcoin candlestick chart from AICoin, showing recent price trends:
Candlestick Pattern Analysis
The recent candlestick chart shows that Bitcoin failed to hold above the resistance level of $88,000 after breaking through, subsequently experiencing a pullback, forming a "false breakout" pattern. This pattern typically indicates that the market may enter a correction or downtrend. Additionally, yesterday's candlestick displayed a long upper shadow, indicating significant selling pressure from above and insufficient buying strength.
Large Capital Movements
After Trump announced the tariff policy, there were clear signs of significant capital outflows from the market. According to on-chain data monitoring, several large Bitcoin holding addresses transferred substantial amounts of Bitcoin to exchanges in a short period, suggesting that institutional investors may be avoiding market risks.
Technical Indicator Analysis
- Moving Averages (MA): The price of Bitcoin has fallen below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a weakening short-term and medium-term trend.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): The current RSI value is 42, approaching the oversold region, indicating that market sentiment is leaning towards pessimism, but has not yet reached an extreme oversold state.
- Trading Volume: During the price decline, trading volume significantly increased, validating the effectiveness of the downward trend.
Fundamental Background
The latest tariff policy from the Trump administration is seen as the main reason for the recent drop in Bitcoin prices. This policy has led to an escalation of global trade tensions, heightening investor concerns about economic slowdown and triggering increased risk-averse sentiment. However, traditional safe-haven assets like gold have benefited from the rise, while risk assets like Bitcoin have faced selling pressure.
The market fear and greed index has dropped to 35, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards fear. Additionally, the futures market's positions indicate an increase in short positions, suggesting a pessimistic outlook for Bitcoin's short-term trend.
Today's Trend Prediction
Given the aforementioned technical indicators and fundamental factors, Bitcoin is expected to continue facing downward pressure today. If the price breaks below the support level of $82,000, it may further dip into the $80,000 range. Conversely, if it can hold above $82,000 and rebound, attention should be paid to the resistance level of $85,000. Investors should closely monitor the developments in global trade dynamics and changes in market sentiment to adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner.
This article represents the author's personal views and does not reflect the position or views of this platform. This article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.
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