Author: SuperEx
Translated by: Baihua Blockchain
BTC is digital gold—this is a statement that most people in the crypto industry have heard and believe.
This statement held true until 2025. However, many have yet to realize that starting in 2025, financial markets are redefining asset attributes.
Bitcoin (BTC), once hailed as "digital gold," has seen its correlation with gold plummet. In contrast, BTC's correlation with tech stocks has surged to between 0.5 and 0.8, and its volatility pattern now resembles that of high-risk tech stocks rather than a safe-haven asset. On the other hand, due to concerns over stagflation and geopolitical tensions, gold has regained favor among sovereign capital, with its price breaking through the $3,100 mark. Although it lacks the short-term explosive potential of cryptocurrencies, its nearly 15% annualized return appears significantly more attractive. Global stock markets are swaying between valuation bubbles and policy stimulus. For example, the U.S. stock market hovers at high levels, heavily reliant on interest rate cut expectations to maintain momentum.
This divergence reveals a core contradiction: the conflict between traditional safe-haven logic and digital economic trends.
When Bitcoin's "decentralized narrative" is dominated by institutional holdings;
When gold's "millennial consensus" is challenged by central bank digital currencies;
When stock valuations deviate from economic fundamentals—
Investors must reassess the underlying value logic of these three asset classes (Bitcoin, gold, and stocks).
Bitcoin and Stocks: Changes in Correlation and Their Impact
For a long time, Bitcoin's correlation with traditional stock markets was nearly zero—this was one of the key reasons Bitcoin and the entire crypto market attracted many investors.
This low correlation made Bitcoin the ultimate portfolio diversification tool. It was not only unrelated to the stock market but also to all major asset classes. It seemed unique, and even Wall Street acknowledged Bitcoin's potential as a hedge against economic uncertainty and market volatility.
However, this independence quietly changed in 2025. As mentioned at the beginning of this article, starting in 2025, financial markets are redefining asset attributes. Some analysts point out that Bitcoin's correlation with tech stocks has reached its highest level since August 2023. This indicates that BTC's price movements are increasingly synchronized with tech stocks, possibly suggesting that the market now views Bitcoin as a growth asset.
In March of this year, British banking giant Standard Chartered conducted a detailed study on the correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market. They found that Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq is currently at 0.5, and earlier this year, this figure even reached 0.8. What do these numbers mean? Simply put, buying Bitcoin today is akin to purchasing a high-volatility tech stock. If tech stocks decline, Bitcoin is likely to drop; if tech stocks rise, Bitcoin is also likely to rise.
This also means that Bitcoin's price movements can no longer be independent of the traditional stock market and are no longer viewed as the best safe-haven asset. Investors must consider more factors when predicting Bitcoin's price trends.
Bitcoin and Gold: A Comparison of Digital Assets and Traditional Safe-Haven Tools
1. Comparison of Safe-Haven Attributes
As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold has long been viewed by investors as a reliable tool for hedging against inflation and economic uncertainty. Its stability and value retention characteristics have established a broad consensus globally.
In contrast, Bitcoin, as an emerging digital asset, still has controversial safe-haven characteristics. Some studies indicate that Bitcoin shows a certain correlation with gold during significant geopolitical or economic events, demonstrating some safe-haven traits. However, due to Bitcoin's price volatility, its stability as a safe-haven asset is far inferior to that of gold.
2. Price Volatility and Market Performance
Bitcoin's high volatility means its price can experience dramatic fluctuations in the short term. In contrast, gold's volatility is lower, providing a more stable means of value storage.
For example, in 2024, gold prices rose nearly 8%, while Bitcoin fell 24%, reflecting the different responses of these two assets during market turmoil.
3. Market Correlation Analysis
The correlation between Bitcoin and gold is unstable and can change with market conditions.
In June 2024, data showed that the 60-day correlation between the two reached its highest level since 2022, close to 0.5, indicating that their price movements were relatively consistent during this period. In July 2024, this correlation began to weaken, with 30-day and 90-day correlation indicators showing intermittent peaks and troughs, suggesting that the relationship between their price movements has recently diminished.
Considerations for Portfolio Strategy
Given the differences in safe-haven attributes, price volatility, and market correlation between Bitcoin and gold, investors should consider the following factors when formulating their portfolio strategies:
Risk Tolerance: Bitcoin's high volatility may bring high returns but also comes with high risks. Investors should assess their risk tolerance to determine the appropriate proportion of Bitcoin in their portfolio.
Diversification Allocation: Due to the unstable correlation between Bitcoin and gold, including both in a portfolio may help diversify risk and enhance the stability of overall returns.
Market Trend Analysis: Continuously monitoring the market trends of Bitcoin and gold, as well as the macroeconomic factors affecting them, can help investors adjust their strategies in a timely manner.
Conclusion
Although in the investment landscape of 2025, Bitcoin is gradually distancing itself from the "digital gold" label and its safe-haven attributes have weakened, it remains one of the best hedging assets aside from gold and one of the best tools for portfolio diversification.
In simple terms, Bitcoin continues to attract investors seeking rapid growth due to its high volatility and high return potential, despite the accompanying greater risks. On the other hand, gold maintains its position as a value storage asset due to its stability and traditional safe-haven functions. Investors should reasonably allocate these two assets based on their risk tolerance and investment goals to achieve diversification and balance in the complex investment environment of 2025.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
