Affected by Trump's tariff policy and the stubborn inflation in the United States, the performance of cryptocurrencies and U.S. stocks in the first quarter of this year has been disappointing. On April 1, QCP released a report summarizing on its official Telegram channel, indicating that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the S&P 500 index all recorded their worst quarterly performance in nearly three years in the first quarter of this year. The second quarter also started under pressure, with the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market evaporating by more than $160 billion since last Friday, highlighting the severe situation faced at the start of the second quarter.

Last night, after the U.S. stock market opened, many investors were focused on Trump's upcoming announcement of a new round of tariff policies at 2 a.m. Eastern Time on the 2nd, leading to a relatively quiet market. The four major indices closed slightly higher, with only the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining, closing down 0.03%.

In the cryptocurrency market, around 10:00 PM last night, there was a rapid drop to $82,500, but it quickly rebounded with the U.S. stock market, reaching a high of around $85,555 in the morning. It has since pulled back, currently quoted at $84,579, with a 24-hour increase of 0.61%.

Key events to watch this week: The market correction over the weekend was mainly due to large-scale options expiration at the end of the quarter, leading to market sell-offs as traders actively sold, causing the perpetual contract funding rate to shift from neutral to negative. Meanwhile, the deleveraging in the cryptocurrency market coincided with macro data bringing further blows. Core inflation data exceeded expectations, confirming that inflation in February was more stubborn.

Although April is usually a month with relatively good returns for cryptocurrencies, caution is still needed. In addition to Trump's tariff policy announcement at 3 a.m. Beijing time on April 3, other key events to watch this week include Tuesday's ISM Manufacturing PMI; Thursday's ISM Services PMI; and Friday's non-farm payroll data, unemployment rate, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech.

Bitcoin 4-Hour Chart

First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the current price is operating near the middle band and has slightly broken upwards, indicating a short-term upward trend. If the price continues to move along the upper band, it may rise further, but caution is needed regarding the risks brought by the news at 3 a.m.

Second, based on the MACD indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the DIF line and DEA line are operating near the 0 axis and are turning downwards, showing a tendency to form a death cross, which is usually a bearish signal. The MACD red histogram is also gradually shortening, indicating that bullish momentum is weakening and bearish pressure is approaching.

Finally, according to the KDJ indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the K line value and D line value have entered the overbought area and are crossing downwards to form a death cross pattern, which is typically seen as a signal that bearish pressure is imminent. The price may subsequently pull back downwards.

Bitcoin 1-Hour Chart

First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the price once broke through the upper band and then pulled back, currently operating between the middle band and the lower band, indicating a short-term adjustment phase. If the price can effectively stabilize above the middle band, it may challenge the upper band again; if it fails to stabilize effectively at the upper band, it may retrace to the lower band.

Second, based on the MACD indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the DIF line and DEA line are operating above the 0 axis and have formed a death cross pattern, accompanied by the MACD histogram turning from red to green, indicating that bearish momentum is strengthening, and a pullback is possible in the short term.

Finally, according to the KDJ indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the K line value and D line value are at a relatively low position but have not entered the oversold area. If the KDJ three-line values form a golden cross pattern, a short-term rebound may occur; if it continues to move downwards, the speed of the decline will accelerate.

In summary, the short-term price of Bitcoin is oscillating between 83,900 and 84,600. The MACD indicator on the 4H level shows that the DIF line and DEA line have formed a death cross pattern, accompanied by a shortening red histogram, indicating a need to be cautious of the risk of a pullback. Although the KDJ indicator on the 1H level has not entered the oversold area, the MACD indicator has also formed a death cross pattern, showing that bearish momentum is increasing.

Based on the above analysis, the following suggestions are provided for reference:

Suggestion 1: Short Bitcoin at 84,800-85,000, with a stop loss at 85,500 and a target of 83,800-83,300.

Suggestion 2: Long Bitcoin at 83,000-83,300, with a stop loss at 82,600 and a target of 85,000-85,500.

A 100% accurate suggestion is not as valuable as providing you with the correct mindset and trend. After all, teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish. Suggestions may earn you a moment, but learning the mindset can earn you a lifetime! The focus is on the mindset, grasping the trend, and planning positions. What I can do is use my practical experience to help you, guiding your investment decisions and management in the right direction.

Written on: (2025-04-02, 16:10)

(Written by - Daxian Says Coin) Disclaimer: Online publication has delays, and the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is dedicated to research and analysis in the fields of Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, forex, stocks, etc., with years of experience in the financial market and rich practical operation experience. Investment carries risks, and caution is needed when entering the market. For more real-time market analysis, please follow the official account Daxian Says Coin for discussion and exchange.

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