You can fall down, but remember to stand up; you can cry, but remember to grow up. A little more effort every day, not for anything else, but to have more choices in the future, to choose a simple life where clouds roll and unroll, to choose a life where you call the shots, to choose the people you like.
Yesterday was another not-so-pleasant day, with the market showing a rebound, mainly concentrated in the evening. During the day, it was overall a slow rise with some fluctuations, and then with the opening of the U.S. stock market, it followed the low opening of the U.S. stocks and experienced a dip, reaching around 82500 at one point. However, the final result was a quick recovery, rising back above 85000 in a short time. As of now, it is a slight pullback with fluctuations. In terms of operations, our short positions were ultimately stopped out, and the short-term rise was indeed quite unexpected. There wasn't much news yesterday; the tariff policy is set to be announced at 3 AM Beijing time on Thursday, when Trump will give a speech. However, the market sentiment was quite bearish yesterday, with high liquidity of short positions around 85000, which also provided the market with an opportunity to clear liquidity. After replenishing short positions yesterday, the average price was around 83850, and with the stop loss at 85000, we incurred a loss of over a thousand points, giving back some of the profits made from shorting down from the highs. Now, we need to regroup and earn more profits in the upcoming market.
Dreams may be distant, but do not be afraid; steadfast action will lead to a promising future!
On the market, although there was a rise yesterday, there was no significant change in the structural pattern across various time frames. Simply put, the strength of yesterday's movement does not indicate a change in the structural trend. On the daily chart, there are three consecutive bullish candles, but there is a clear expectation of a head and shoulders pattern, and the MACD indicator shows that the bullish volume is still converging, indicating further room for adjustment. Of course, if the market can regain strength and break above 88000, it would break the structure and possibly continue upward to reach a small high point, but from the current market perspective, this seems quite difficult.
On the four-hour level, the only change is the unexpected strength of the bullish cycle in the short term. For the past two days, we have been discussing this rebound, which is clearly supported by the previous low at 81000. After the decline, there is a noticeable recovery of market indicators, and since the drop from 88000, there has been no significant oversold rebound. Overall, the structure remains unchanged, and the trend is still bearish. After this rebound, we are now in a pullback phase. From a short-term perspective, the high point of yesterday's rebound is currently a resistance level. If the market is strong, it will continue to refresh the high points, meaning the lows are getting higher and the highs are also getting higher, which indicates a strong short-term market. If the market dips again, we should pay attention to the support levels at 82500 and 81000, which are basically the low points during the previous decline.
From the market perspective, the rise yesterday was due to market bets that the results of the tariff policy meeting would not meet bearish expectations. In other words, the tariff policy itself is a bearish piece of news, but after the previous decline, some of the bearish sentiment has been consumed. When the actual results come out, if they are lower than the market's expectations for increased tariffs, it would be a positive outcome, which aligns with the idea of "buying the expectation, selling the fact." It is understood that the market expects a 20% increase in tariffs, but many institutions now predict it will not be that high, so the actual figure is key.
In terms of operations, there is too much uncertainty in the market influenced by news, and combined with the technical perspective, it still leans bearish. For short-term trading, a short position can be taken with 86000 as a defense, meaning shorting around 85000 without adding to positions. If the news is positive and the market breaks out, then consider positioning in the 88500 area. For long positions, the first consideration can be around 81500, and then we will operate based on real-time market conditions.
Ethereum's strength is weaker; yesterday's high point rebound did not hit the stop loss at 1950, and today's pullback has reached around 1850. If there is downward strength today, there is still room to watch.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only; please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market conditions change in real-time, so the information may be outdated. Specific operations should be based on real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】
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